Jessica Corbett
WITH world leaders, climate campaigners, scientists, and more gathered in Türkiye for the United Nations Climate Change Conference, an independent project that tracks government action warned Thursday that global warming is headed toward “an irrecoverable overshoot of 1.5°C” unless countries “rapidly reduce emissions to limit both the magnitude and duration of this overshoot.”
A series of analyses released in the lead-up to the summit—including the United Nations Environment Program’s “Limiting Overshoot” publication from September, the UNEP’s “The Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return” from October, and the World Meteorological Organization’s “State of the Climate: Update for COP31” from last week—have all sounded the alarm about at least temporarily surpassing 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement’s global temperature rise limit for this century.
The new Climate Action Tracker (CAT) report, “Without Rapid Action, The World Is Heading to Irrecoverable Overshoot,” lays out real-world action based on current policies; pledges and targets from the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of countries that have signed on to the Paris Agreement; and the “optimistic scenario” based on all announced ambitions.
“Aggregated climate action has now essentially stalled for five consecutive years, with positive and negative actions canceling each other out,” says the CAT briefing. “The warming outlook from current policies is leading to 2.7°C in 2100 (slightly up from 2.6°C) as it stood from 2021-2024.”
“Our 2030 and 2035 targets scenario that assumes governments meet all their targets remains unchanged at 2.6°C in 2100,” the report details. “The round of 2035 NDCs has closed: And it’s clear governments have failed to meaningfully improve the outlook for end-of-century warming.”
CAT’s scenario that includes 2030 and 2035 NDCs as well as long-term targets projects “warming of 2.1°C in 2100, down from 2.2°C last year,” the report continues. “Ambitious near- and long-term targets matter, but without credible policies and immediate implementation, they risk becoming empty promises rather than drivers of real-world emission reductions.”
“Our optimistic scenario, assuming full implementation of all announced and net-zero targets, remains at 1.9°C in 2100,” it stresses. “Even under our most optimistic assessment, if governments were to implement every single national pledge they have made—including the net-zero targets—we will still permanently overshoot the 1.5°C limit and get close to 2°C.”
As both greenhouse gas concentrations and the profits of fossil fuel giants have soared while communities around the world face deadly heatwaves, rapidly intensifying hurricanes, rising sea levels, and destructive wildfires—like those that ravaged COP31 host Türkiye in September—scientists have reiterated warnings about the need for sweeping action to cut emissions.
“Continued warming from greenhouse gases emitted from human activities threatens to feed further warming as permafrost, wetlands, and wildfires destabilize and respond by releasing carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide,” Ben Poulter, warming-induced emissions program director at Spark Climate Solutions, said in September, when a study he co-authored was published.
“This study provides a critical look at the magnitude of the temperature response,” Poulter added, “and a call to action to accelerate the accounting and monitoring of warming-induced emissions to support pathways that phase out fossil emissions to stabilize the planet’s climate.”
