KOLKATA — Exit poll projections for the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections are pointing in different directions, with some surveys giving the edge to the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), while others hint at a possible surge for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
One such poll by People’s Pulse suggests the TMC-led alliance could secure a comfortable majority, projecting between 177 and 187 seats in the 294-member Assembly.
The BJP, according to the same survey, is expected to win between 95 and 110 seats, according to a report published by Vartha Bharati.
The Left Front alliance is likely to have a negligible presence, with projections indicating at most one seat. The Congress could pick up between one and three seats, while other parties may together account for one or two seats.
P-MARQ has also projected a BJP lead, estimating the party to win between 150 and 175 seats, while the TMC+ alliance is expected to secure between 118 and 138 seats. The same survey projects Congress to win between 2 and 6 seats.
Matrize, however, points to a very different picture. Its projections place the BJP ahead, with the party expected to win between 146 and 161 seats, a vote share of around 42.5 percent. The TMC, in contrast, is estimated to secure between 125 and 140 seats, with a slightly lower vote share of 40.8 per cent.
A similar trend is reflected in the P-MARQ survey, which also gives the BJP the advantage, projecting it to win between 150 and 175 seats. The TMC-led alliance, according to this poll, could end up with 118 to 138 seats. The Congress is expected to win a small number of seats, likely between 2 and 6.
Poll Diary estimates suggest the BJP may win between 142 and 171 seats, while the TMC could secure between 99 and 127 seats. Other parties are projected to win between 5 and 9 seats.
Chanakya Strategies has projected the BJP to win between 150 and 160 seats, while the TMC is estimated to get between 130 and 140 seats. Others are expected to secure between 6 and 10 seats, while Congress and Left are projected at zero.
ABP projections estimate the BJP to win between 146 and 161 seats, while the TMC is expected to secure between 125 and 140 seats. Others are projected to win between 6 and 10 seats.
Polls in the state were held in two phases on April 23 and 29, and the counting of votes is scheduled to take place on May 4.
