The dramatic toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s regime at the hands of rebel forces could have far-reaching consequences for Syria, global and regional powers, and alliances. It also may prove to be a replay of earlier events in Iraq courtesy of the Western powers
Asad Mirza
OVER the past fortnight, rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) carried out a lightning-fast offensive across Syria, seizing key cities along the way. The faction finally claimed the capital Damascus at the weekend (7 December), prompting President Bashar al-Assad to flee the country and seek refuge in Russia.
The overthrow of Assad was greeted cautiously by Western nations who are wary of the potential for further bloodshed and of a power vacuum in Syria if a chaotic and contested transition of leadership takes place. But it would not be wrong to say that these Western powers themselves will make decisions which may lead Syria to further chaos.
An example of this was evident when American president-elect Donald Trump claimed on social media that ‘It’s NOT our war.’ However, the Biden administration and Israel started aerial bombardment of Syrian areas to eliminate alleged chemical weapons. It reminds us of the Iraq saga; future events may duplicate it.
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that it has struck more than 75 targets, including hideouts of ISIS leaders, operatives, and camps, to ensure that the group does not take advantage of the chaotic situation following the end of Assad’s rule. Al Jazeera reported that Israel carried out 480 air strikes in just two days (9-10 December) across Syria.
Meanwhile, Israeli troops have moved into the buffer zone on the edge of the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights. This was a longstanding Israeli dream, and in strategic terms, it means that whosoever controls Golan Heights, could be a threat to Israel, as from the western Golan, it is only about 60 miles – without major terrain obstacles – to Haifa and Acre, and Israel’s industrial heartland. A UN spokesman described this as “constituting a violation” of the 1974 disengagement agreement between Israel and Syria. Additionally, Israel’s military offensive in Syria could well be part of the pro-Western plan to tame the rebels from day one.
The bigger question here is: Who gave the right to the US and Israel to bomb Syria, a sovereign state? They do not have the UN mandate or wider acceptance by other Western powers. So how could they act as the international militia?
Regional Winners
At the geopolitical level, the Syrian saga has not yet ended; it has just begun. After the installation of any caretaker government, the Western powers led by the US and Israel will continue to interfere in the country’s political process besides undermining its defence capabilities, in the name of countering ISIS or Al-Qaeda. Meanwhile, Syria’s old supporters, Russia and Iran, will try to carve out a more robust engagement with the new government. Though for the moment,
rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani aka Ahmed al-Sharaa has indicated his animosity towards Iran, but the realpolitik and pressure from the Iranian proxies in Syria may force him to change his tune.
For now, however, the fall of the Assad dynasty after over 50 years in power has more immediate global ramifications, with Russia and Iran seen as “losers” after the ousting of the Syrian dictator, while the US, Turkey and Israel are viewed among the main beneficiaries.
Europe could also be a beneficiary of the regime change in Syria, if it means fewer displaced refugees entering the region – a development that has fuelled anti-immigrant sentiment and the rise of populist right-wing parties in recent years, accompanied by a surge in Islamophobia.
The major immediate geopolitical “winners” are Israel and Turkey, with the former seeing its regional nemesis Iran weakened further, thanks to Assad’s downfall – while Ankara could emerge as “the most influential” foreign actor in the country.
Israel is seen as a beneficiary of Assad’s fall because of its impact on Iran, which has used Syria as a supply route to its proxy in Lebanon, the Hezbollah. Israel has looked to severely weaken this supply chain as part of its military campaign against Iranian proxies in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.
Additionally, there is no doubt that Russia will be concerned over the amount of influence – and goodwill – it can expect from a new leadership in Syria. Moscow has a vested interest in keeping the new government on its side, as it operates an air base in Hmeimim in the southeast Syrian city of Latakia, along with a naval base in the port town of Tartus that gives it access to the Mediterranean Sea.
Reuters reported citing Russian news agencies that though the rebel forces have given assurances to the Kremlin that they would guarantee the safety of Russian military bases and diplomatic institutions in Syria, Russia’s long-term military presence in the country is seen as far from certain.
How the Rebellion Started
The events of the last 15 days have taken many by surprise. And it may seem like taking another page out of the Arab Spring saga. Just like the Arab Spring, it was a simple act of rebellion. A teenager, a spray can, and a wall. But what happened next would change the course of history, leaving a nation in ruins and a dictator fighting for survival. This is the story of Mouawiya Syasneh, a 14-year-old whose graffiti lit the fuse of the Syrian civil war. A conflict that has now come full circle as Bashar al-Assad’s grip on power has been crushed. But how did a teenager spark a revolution, and where does Syria stand today?
Let’s go back to 2011, to the dusty streets of Daraa in southern Syria. Alex Croft, in his article in The Independent writes that Mouawiya Syasneh and his friends were like any other teenager – curious, mischievous, frustrated with the world around them. But Syria wasn’t just any place. It was a nation ruled with an iron fist, where dissent was dangerous and silence was survival. Armed with nothing but a spray can, Mouawiya sprayed a message on a school wall. The message was a warning which read ‘Ejak el door, ya doctor’, which means ‘Now it’s your turn, Doctor’.
The doctor in the message was President Bashar al-Assad, whose background as an ophthalmologist had earned him the nickname. The graffiti wasn’t just a jab. It was a spark of defiance against a regime that had held Syria in a chokehold for decades. What happened next was brutal. Mouawiya and his friends were arrested by Syria’s secret police, the notorious Mukhabarat. For 26 days, they were held in captivity, tortured, and humiliated.
When their parents and neighbours demanded their release, the regime responded with violence – tear gas, bullets, and bloodshed. But instead of silencing the people, the regime’s actions ignited something unstoppable. On March 15, 2011, Syrians organised the first “Day of Rage”. Inspired by the Arab Spring that had toppled dictators in Tunisia and Egypt, Syrians from all walks of life took to the streets, demanding freedom, justice, and the downfall of the Assad regime.
However, the fast-paced developments also lead one to wonder whether the Western powers led by the US and in this instance helped by Israel are trying to replay the Iraqi story once again in Syria. The realities are simple to understand, first, create a conflict, then sell arms to the victim country, and thirdly destroy its infrastructure. All for the sake of profit-making, first through arms sale and then reconstruction of that country by Western companies, once the so-called aims of these powers have been allegedly attained or due to increasing international ostracism.
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Asad Mirza is a New Delhi-based senior journalist and a media consultant. He writes on national, international and strategic affairs. The views expressed here are the author’s personal and Clarion India does not necessarily share or subscribe to them. He can be contacted at: asad.mirza.nd@gmail.com