AFTER nearly a year, Bangladesh has returned to the ballot box and elected a new government. This transition suggests a restoration of constitutional order – a movement from provisional stewardship back to an elected mandate. Yet the deeper question is whether the exercise has strengthened democracy or merely formalised power.
Since the founding of the republic in 1971 under Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Bangladesh’s political life has moved through cycles of promise and rupture. A new government stands in place ready to fire on all cylinders. But elections are not, in themselves, proof of democratic health. They are instruments – their legitimacy shaped by participation, credibility, and public trust. The return from interim rule was meant to reassure citizens that representative politics remains the foundation of the state.
The legacy of previous administrations, particularly under Sheikh Hasina and the Bangladesh Awami League, continues to frame the political atmosphere. The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party has long contested the fairness of electoral arrangements, especially since the abolition of the caretaker government system that once oversaw polls.
What Bangladesh now confronts is the restoration of democratic confidence. Whether this election marks a genuine crossing – from uncertainty to renewed democratic trust – remains an open question.
The two-thirds majority promises a return to democratic, anti-corruption governance, with initiatives to boost the economy, introduce constitutional reforms, and establish a 10-year limit for the prime minister. Tarique Rahman is set to become prime minister, ending a long period of female-dominated leadership in Bangladesh.
Voters endorsed reforms, including creating a two-term limit for the prime minister and establishing a 100-member upper house, alongside a shift toward a more neutral caretaker system during elections.
Whither Awami League?
For over a decade and a half, the party dominated the country’s political space under Sheikh Hasina. It projected itself as the custodian of the Liberation legacy, invoking the authority of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and positioning its rule as a continuation of the 1971 promise. Economic growth figures, infrastructure expansion, and international development metrics were repeatedly cited as proof of competent stewardship. The Awami League now faces a reality unfamiliar to a generation of its cadres: operating without the certainty of control.
Bangladesh’s political culture has long been shaped by fierce rivalry between the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party often hardened into zero-sum confrontation. The electorate may now expect a politics less combative and more accountable.
A robust political system requires credible opposition as much as responsible government. If the Awami League can rediscover its roots as a broad-based movement rather than a power machine, it may yet shape Bangladesh’s next chapter from a different bench.
Will Awami League view this moment as an end, or as an opportunity to return to first principles.
Prognosis and Future Outlook
The government is expected to deepen relations with China and the United States, while navigating a complex, potentially tense relationship with India. The BNP has pledged to restore the rule of law and dismantle the institutional structures built by the previous administration. The immediate focus for the new administration is to restore confidence in democratic institutions while addressing severe economic challenges.
The economic challenges
Bangladesh is facing significant economic challenges in 2026, driven by high inflation (reaching 11.66% in mid-2024), political instability, and a weakening banking sector with rising bad loans. Key issues include a widening current account deficit, stalled private investment, and high unemployment, particularly among youth. The economy also faces risks from reduced export competitiveness upon graduating from least-developed country status, alongside climate change vulnerabilities.
Key economic challenges include persistent inflation, exceeding 11% in 2024-2025, that impacted food prices and reduced household purchasing power, and disproportionately affecting low-income populations.
The banking system is struggling with high levels of non-performing loans (defaulted loans), liquidity shortages, and the risk of bankruptcy for some institutions. A widening current account deficit, driven by rising import costs for fuel and capital machinery, has pressured foreign exchange reserves, causing a depreciation of the currency. High unemployment rates, especially among educated youth, and a large percentage of young people (around 41%) who are not in education, employment, or training (NEET).
As of January 2026, Bangladesh has finalised a major agreement with China to establish a state-of-the-art manufacturing and assembly plant for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in Bangladesh.
The agreement includes full technology transfer, allowing for local production, assembly, and training of Bangladeshi personnel. This deal further cements China’s role as a primary defense supplier, having provided 72% of Bangladesh’s arms between 2019 and 2023. Bangladesh has previously engaged in discussions to purchase Chinese J-10CE fighter jets, with 20 jets ordered for delivery by 2027 and has expectedly raised security concerns in India due to its proximity to the border and potential for increased Chinese surveillance capabilities in the region.
Top of Form
Bottom of Form
India-Bangladesh relations
These relations which had a deeply rooted in the 1971 Liberation War, are now experiencing a complex, strategic recalibration as of early 2026. While maintaining strong economic ties with bilateral trade the relationship faces friction due to rising anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh, the sheltering of former PM Hasina in India, and concerns over minority safety. The ousting of the Hasina government has led to a significant trust deficit. Protests in Bangladesh, including incidents near the Indian High Commission, have strained ties. Cooperation is vital for securing India’s Northeast, particularly with the 4,096 km border
Key Aspects of the “Pakistan Factor”
Bangladesh-Pakistan relations, historically strained by the 1971 war, are undergoing a significant realignment post-2024, shifting from a long-term freeze under Sheikh Hasina to renewed engagement under the interim government, increasing diplomatic, economic, and military ties. Pakistan seeks to expand influence, while Bangladesh recalibrates its foreign policy.
Increasing defence cooperation and military dialogues, with Pakistan aiming to counter India’s influence by boosting security ties in Bangladesh. Direct shipping and flight services are resuming, with Pakistani exports to Bangladesh rising sharply, as of early 2026. While Pakistan tries to move past the 1971 legacy by utilizing rising anti-India and Islamist sentiment, observers note that Pakistan has limited economic resources to act as a significant long-term alternative to India for Bangladesh.
A SAARC option
Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, is actively pushing to revive the dormant South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) to boost regional economic cooperation. Despite the group being inactive since 2016 due to India-Pakistan tensions, Bangladesh is seeking support from Pakistan and India to restart the bloc.
Since taking charge in August 2024, Muhammad Yunus has advocated for the “spirit of SAARC” to address regional issues, meeting with Pakistani leadership to discuss the revival. Bangladesh, a founding member, sees SAARC as crucial for trade, energy, and connectivity. India has largely favoured sub-regional initiatives like BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) over SAARC, citing Pakistan’s sponsorship of terrorism as the reason for the deadlock.
The initiative represents a shift in Bangladesh’s foreign policy focus under the interim administration, aiming to resurrect regional cooperation, but it is currently navigating a complex geopolitical landscape with India favouring alternatives to the Pakistan-inclusive SAARC.
The Way Forward
The way forward for Bangladesh involves strengthening democratic institutions, implementing deep structural economic reforms, and ensuring law and order following the 2024 political transition. Key priorities include fostering political unity, protecting minority rights, promoting, and conducting free, fair elections to establish a legitimate government. Bangladesh will want to insist on Inclusive Development and pro-poor policies that prioritize marginalised districts and upazilas. Youth Engagement must capitalise on the, student-led, spirit of the 2024 change for positive, structural, and social reforms.
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Ranjan Solomon is a writer, researcher and activist based in Goa. He has worked in social movements since he was 19 years of age. The views expressed here are the author’s own and Clarion India does not necessarily share or subscribe to them. He can be contacted at ranjan.solomon@gmail.com
