Dr Mansoor Durrani
OVER the last seventy years, if the Western powers had slightest vision or wisdom they would have settled the Palestine-Israel dispute in a fair and orderly manner. But they lacked both. The ground situation reached a boiling point. So 7th October 2023 had to happen – sooner or later. And it did.
That morning, around 11:00am Gaza time, while Palestinian resistance fighters were still rampaging through the occupied lands on the perimeters of Gaza, I wrote a quick and crude piece: “A Single Morning that may Change the Middle East Forever”- Source: Countercurrents A Single Morning that may Change the Middle East Forever! It was not a “genius” prophecy. It was simply an observation of a lay person who could clearly see writing on the wall.
Seventy years of brutal occupation of Palestine and a bunch of other countries’ land in the Israeli neighborhood combined with total capitulation and impotency of Muslim governments in general and Arabs in particular meant something “out of the box” was overdue.
In compliance with International Law for population under occupation, when young boys of Yahya Sinwar audaciously broke through an inhuman cage, engineered and erected by one of the most modern and sophisticated military machines in the world, they also punched a hole in the Western global dominance system built after the second Word War. That system created a number of facade, on top of the list was the New York based circus called the United Nations. It has served the US hegemonic designs for well over seven decades. Post 7th October, it stands fully exposed in front of the entire world. So the chief architect of the UN itself, the US, is undermining and dismantling it – bit by bit. Because the UN has clearly and conclusively reached its “use by” date!
What more has the Palestinian resistance achieved over the last two and a half years, since it’s 7th October jail-break?
A lot, truly a lot. Let’s start from the region itself, because that matters the most:
1. Saudi Arabia – one of the most prominent Muslim states – was on the verge of friendship with Israel on the morning of 7th October. That prospect is dead – perhaps forever.
2. Saudi Arabia realises that pouring billions of dollars into buying Ronaldo, building Formula One Race Circuits or even trillion dollars cities is meaningless unless it has indigenous military/technology capability to defend itself from cheap Iranian drones and other regional threats – primarily from Israel.
3. Saudi Air Force’s 200+ fleet of very expensive American F-15 fighter jets did not save it from nonstop hammering by Iran’s indigenously built, cheap drones and missiles. Saudis are very smart. They will now rehash their priorities – away from Ronaldos, F-1s and other “trophy” projects – towards more sustainable nation-building.
4. Qataris spent several billion dollars in building the largest US military base in the world at Al-Udaid for their protection. Made sense. Did it help? NOPE!
5. Qataris spent several billion dollars in organizing a highly successful soccer World Cup just a year before the 7th October. During Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, for the first time in Gulf history, they were bombed by Israeli Air Force.
6.The multi-billion dollar crown jewel of Qatari economy Ras Laffan Gas project, that supplies Liquified Natural Gas to half of Europe, was reduced to ashes in minutes by cheap Iranian drones and missiles. Qataris too are very smart. In fact, smarter than Saudis. They too will rehash their priorities now.
7. In terms of their weight and impact, others in the GCC region are not worth mentioning! They are mere footnotes of this larger geopolitical story unfolding in front of our eyes in the post 7th October world.
8.October 7th and subsequent 30 months proved that Israel is not invincible. It can be shown its true place under the sun – with some level of sacrifices and steadfastness. The resistance groups did so, in compliance with international law, by standing up to the most brutal military assaults in human history. And still standing.
9. Israelis are rapidly losing support among European governments. From European population, they never had big support.
Spain is totally against genocidal Israeli regime.
Italy has also come out openly against Israel – unthinkable just 3 years back. Two very prominent European nations.
Ireland was all along opposed to this apartheid regime.
10. South Africa filed a case of genocide and war crimes against Israeli political and military leadership. It was unimaginable before 7th October that anyone in the world can dare to issue an arrest warrant against an Israeli Prime. But it happened. Netanyahu is now a wanted war criminal and an arrest warrant is issued against him.
11. US political temperature is measured by the public opinions expressed through opinion polls. Pew Research and Gallup are the two most prominent pollsters in the world. Their surveys consistently show the support of American public for Israel has nosedived from very positive to very negative. This dramatic shift in American public opinion about Israel was also unthinkable before 7th October.
12. Most importantly, conservative Christian thought leaders like Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly and Candace Owens are furious at Israel’s inhuman and uncivilized conduct in the region as an unhinged entity with utter contempt for humanity or international law. Israel will feel the American political heat – sooner.
13. Iran has always supported Palestinian liberation, including 7th October jail-break. To punish it, Israel made the biggest (and most likely final) blunder in its history by attacking Iran along with its patron the US government. Their treachery (Western “values”?) was on full display when they launched major wars twice, in the middle of “negotiations” with Iran.
14. But Iran has taught both the aggressors – US and Israel, over a forty days period – a painful lesson that both these “military superpowers” are likely to lick their wounds for forty years – perhaps!
15. Iran has destroyed or badly damaged all thirteen US military bases in the Middle Eastern region. They will never be restored to their past glory. In late March, Israeli Army Chief Eyal Zamir has publicly admitted that Israeli army is nearing ‘collapse”! This state of Israeli army’s rock bottom moral is due to the most painful punches given to them by Palestinians since 7th October.
16. Thanks to Israeli and American adventure of attacking it, Iran has chocked the global economy by closing down its surrounding waterways through which significant amount of global trade (not just oil & gas) transits – helium (critical for microchips), aluminum, fertilizers etc. This unprecedented change in the Middle East was impossible before 7th October!
17. It is a historical fact that Indian nuclear bomb gave birth to the first Muslim nuclear power in the world – Pakistan – which is absurdly called the “Islamic bomb”! Well established double-standards prove, once again, that US/UK/French/Russian nuclear bombs were never dubbed as “Christian bombs”, Chinese nuclear bombs as “Buddhist bombs” and Indian nuclear bombs were never referred “Hindu bombs” or Israeli nuclear arsenal as “Jewish bomb”! Only Muslims were singled out – globally! Even though, if and when these weapons of mass destruction are used by any rogue state, they will never discriminate between innocent humans on the basis of their faith.
18. Nevertheless, in the post 7th October world, the only Muslim nuclear power is emerging as the net security provider in the Middle East. Pakistan has already signed a formal Defense Agreement with Saudi. After the dust settles on the current war, it will most likely expand into an “Islamic NATO” consisting of Turkey, Egypt and Qatar. That will be a tectonic shift in the security landscape of the Middle East and beyond.
19. So a lot has changed in the Middle East, as I had anticipated at around 11:00am on 7th October 2023. We will most likely witness the undoing of Israeli apartheid state in our life time. And a very different Middle East sooner than anyone thought just three years back.
20. Alongside Iran, all resistance groups across Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq are diminished (the way US and Israel are diminished, a natural price of any war), but the entire resistance arch is still standing and fighting back. We never know if new resistance groups will emerge in the region – e.g. Syria and Egypt – two major Arab countries directly impacted by 7th October. Because human psychology informs us that oppression gives rise to resistance. It applies across all ethnicities, cultures and geographies.
This is the balance sheet of 7th October – written in the blood of over 100,000 innocent Muslim lives. And as they say in India:
picture abhi baaqi hai (the movie is not finished yet)!
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The article first appeared in Countercurrents
