Mohd Ziyaullah Khan
“This was not a wave but a tsunami,” proclaimed one of the BJP leaders, summarizing the resounding outcome of the Maharashtra Assembly Elections. However, the big question remains: how did we get here? How did the verdict turn out like this? These were the reactions echoing in the opposition camp.
“I cannot make sense of this,” lamented a visibly dejected Uddhav Thackeray, leader of the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Bal Thackeray) faction. With only 16 seats secured and a lead in four more by 6:30 PM, Thackeray’s party faced a crushing blow. Contesting 89 seats but managing to win only 22% of them, the party now grapples with an existential crisis—a stark contrast to the Lok Sabha elections just four months earlier.
Earlier in the day, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut voiced his dissatisfaction with the results, demanding re-elections through ballot papers. “The result of Maharashtra is not the voice of the people,” Raut posted on X (formerly Twitter). Despite these protests, the resounding mandate in favor of the Mahayuti alliance rendered the opposition’s grievances inconsequential.
Mahayuti Alliance’s Resounding Victory
The Mahayuti alliance, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction, achieved a landslide victory. The BJP had won 132 seats, while the Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP secured leads in 57 and 41 seats, respectively. Smaller allies like the Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSP), Republican Party of India (Athawale), Shiv Sangram, and Rayat Kranti Sanghatana contributed to this stellar performance. This victory surpassed the BJP’s achievements during the “Modi wave” in 2014 and 2019, cementing the alliance’s dominance in Maharashtra politics.
The Opposition’s Struggles
Amidst all this victory of the Mahayuti Alliance, it is interesting to see where the opposition failed:
· Congress Fails to Make an Impact: The Congress party’s performance was particularly disappointing, winning only 15 of the 103 seats it contested. This marked its worst-ever performance in Maharashtra. In comparison, the party had secured 40 seats in 2014 and 44 seats in 2019, even without major campaign efforts.Despite high-profile campaigns by Congress leaders Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi, and Priyanka Gandhi, the party’s efforts failed to resonate with voters. Congress leader Ramesh Chennithala labeled the results “unbelievable and unacceptable,” citing the disconnect between the visible ground distress and the election outcome.
· Sharad Pawar’s NCP Faces a Crushing Defeat: The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) faction led by Sharad Pawar also faced a severe setback. Of the 87 candidates fielded, only 10 secured victories. Notably, Sharad Pawar’s grand-nephew, Yugendra Pawar, lost to Ajit Pawar by over one lakh votes in Baramati.Adding to their woes was the confusion caused by 163 independent candidates using the trumpet symbol—closely resembling the Sharad Pawar faction’s party symbol. Of these, 78 contested against NCP candidates, further splitting votes and weakening the party’s position.
Key Factors Behind Mahayuti’s Victory
Some of the key factors behind the victory of Mahayuti as under:
· Mukhya Mantri Ladki Bahin Yojana: One of the critical factors driving Mahayuti’s success was the Mukhya Mantri Ladki Bahin Yojana. Launched in July 2024, this scheme provided a monthly stipend of ₹1,500 to eligible women aged 21 to 65. Over five months, 2.34 crore women received ₹7,500 each, creating a new constituency of loyal voters.
· Eknath Shinde highlighted the scheme’s impact during his press conference, attributing the alliance’s success to the support of over 4.6 crore women voters. The program’s reach was immense, with ₹17,000 crore already distributed. Upon returning to power, the Mahayuti plans to increase the monthly amount to ₹2,100.
· Strategic Campaigning and Strong Alliances: Unlike the Mahavikas Aghadi (MVA), the Mahayuti alliance presented a united front with a well-coordinated strategy. The BJP’s grassroots efforts and Eknath Shinde’s leadership resonated with voters across demographics.
· Voting Patterns and Demographics: The 5% rise in voter turnout was another significant factor. Analysts believe the increase was largely due to women voters mobilized by welfare schemes. The exact voting patterns and demographics will offer deeper insights in the coming days.
Mahavikas Aghadi’s Missteps
The Mahavikas Aghadi (MVA), comprising the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, failed to capitalize on public discontent. Their decision to oppose the Ladki Bahin Yojana and later include a similar promise in their manifesto appeared inconsistent and failed to gain traction among voters. Despite addressing critical issues like unemployment, farmer distress, and Maratha reservations, the MVA’s efforts lacked the clarity and cohesion displayed by the Mahayuti.
Changing Dynamics in Maharashtra Politics
Some of the key elements that would witness the changing dynamics in the state politics, have a look as under:
· Urban and Rural Disconnect: Urban voters appeared to overlook issues like poor infrastructure, focusing instead on broader narratives presented by the Mahayuti. In rural areas, despite widespread dissatisfaction with agrarian policies, the BJP managed to regain lost ground, especially in regions like Marathwada.
· Impact of Farm Distress Narrative: The Congress’s heavy reliance on the farm distress narrative failed to make a significant impact. Vidarbha, once a stronghold for the BJP, had seen reduced support in 2019 due to farmer grievances. However, the region witnessed a BJP revival in this election, defying expectations.
Looking Ahead
If you check the road ahead, we need to consider the following points:
· Introspection and Rebuilding: Opposition parties, including Congress and the NCP, have announced plans to introspect and rebuild after this defeat. However, the road ahead is challenging, with the Mahayuti’s dominance likely to shape Maharashtra’s political landscape for years to come.
· Focus on Governance: For the Mahayuti, the challenge now lies in delivering on their promises. Schemes like the Ladki Bahin Yojana have raised expectations, and the alliance will need to address pressing issues like unemployment, infrastructure, and farmer welfare to maintain voter confidence.
C. Countercurrents