AIMIM has fielded Tahir Hussain, an accused in the 2020 Delhi riots case. The constituency has about a lakh Muslim voters
Team Clarion
NEW DELHI – The political battle in the upcoming Delhi Assembly elections has intensified with appeals against a division of Muslim votes that has historically benefited the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In Mustafabad, electioneering has taken a complex turn with multiple parties vying for the significant Muslim vote bank. Nearly 40% of the constituency’s population comprises Muslim voters, whose potential division between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Congress, and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) could benefit the BJP, as was seen in earlier elections.
The Mustafabad constituency holds historical significance for the BJP, as it was one of the only three seats the party managed to secure during the 2015 elections despite a strong wave favouring AAP across Delhi. However, in 2020, the AAP turned the tide with Haji Yunus winning the seat by a significant margin of 20,704 votes. This time, AAP has replaced Haji Yunus with Adil Ahmed Khan as its candidate. Meanwhile, the BJP, which had taken a lead in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and swept all five wards in the municipal polls, is expected to field Jagdish Pradhan, a former MLA who won the seat in 2015. The Congress has fielded Ali Mehndi, while AIMIM has sparked further controversy by nominating Tahir Hussain, an accused in the 2020 Delhi riots case.
The battle for Mustafabad involves four main candidates: Adil Ahmed AAP’s Khan, Mehndi of Congress, BJP’s Pradhan, and AIMIM’s Tahir Hussain. The constituency has approximately 2.6 lakh voters, with nearly 1 lakh Muslim voters expected to play a decisive role. The fragmentation of Muslim votes among AAP, Congress, and AIMIM could work against AAP’s electoral prospects.
Khan’s strong organisational influence and AAP’s strategy to cut the ticket of the sitting MLA, aiming to reduce anti-incumbency, are key factors in its favour. Historically, Muslim voters have supported the party best positioned to defeat the BJP. However, challenges persist for AAP due to the entry of AIMIM and Congress into the fray, both targeting the same vote bank.
The BJP, which relies on consolidating non-Muslim votes while benefiting from the division of Muslim votes, seems to be eyeing a repeat of its 2015 success in Mustafabad. The party had then won the seat. A local political analyst, speaking on the condition of anonymity, noted: “The BJP’s strategy seems to focus on keeping its core vote intact while banking on the fragmentation of the Muslim vote. If AIMIM and Congress succeed in splitting votes, the BJP stands to gain.”
The entry of AIMIM’s Tahir Hussain has further complicated the electoral landscape. Hussain, a controversial figure due to his alleged involvement in the Delhi riots, could split Muslim votes significantly. On the other hand, Congress has also ramped up its efforts to regain the trust of Muslim voters, which it once commanded in the area.
In the past elections, Hasan Ahmed from Congress won in 2013 with a margin of 1,896 votes, followed by Jagdish Pradhan from BJP in 2015 with a margin of 6,031 votes, and Haji Yunus from AAP in 2020 with a margin of 20,704 votes. The electoral history indicates a fluctuating pattern, with the Muslim vote playing a decisive role in each outcome.
If the Muslim vote remains divided, it could diminish the chances of AAP retaining the seat. BJP’s consistent presence and historical success, however, position it as a formidable contender. Political observer Imran Malik commented: “AAP’s decision to replace its sitting MLA could be risky. The BJP’s 2015 formula could work again if the Muslim vote gets divided.”
