Bihar Polls: AIMIM No Factor in Grand Alliance’s Losses, Reveals Data

Date:

Voters maintain social distancing as they wait to undergo thermal screening in a queue amid COVID-19 pandemic, at a polling station during the third and the last phase of Bihar Assembly elections, in Kishanganj on Nov 7, 2020. — IANS

But AIMIM’s wait for victory in Bihar ended in October 2019 when the party opened its account in the state assembly by winning the Kishanganj seat

Mumtaz Alam | Clarion India

NEW DELHI — Despite massive crowds in rallies and favourable exit polls after voting, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led grand alliance or Mahagathbandhan (MGB) fell short of only 12 seats from the simple majority mark in the just-concluded elections to the 243-member Bihar Legislative Assembly while the ruling BJP-led NDA managed to retain power.

There is a perception that Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) directly or indirectly damaged the alliance. But does the result data support this charge? Here is an in-depth analysis:

AIMIM fielded 19 candidates, most of them in the four districts of eastern Bihar, popularly known as Seemanchal–Kishanganj, Katihar, Purnia and Araria. Its candidates included 15 from the Muslim community, 2 from Scheduled Castes and 1 from Scheduled Tribes.

Out of these 19 seats, while MGB won 9 seats and NDA walked away with 5 seats, AIMIM also bagged 5 seats, its best performance ever in assembly polls outside Telangana.

Let’s first analyse the 5 seats won by NDA, including 3 by BJP. Did division of votes among non-NDA parties, including AIMIM, help NDA win those seats?

The table below shows that in all 5 seats won by NDA, the AIMIM was nowhere in the fight. In 3 seats, AIMIM got less than 3,000 votes and in 2 others it got less than 6,000 votes. NDA won all these seats directly, defeating MGB with a sizable margin of more than 15,000 votes in 3 constituencies.

The lowest victory margin for NDA (2,304 votes) was in the Raniganj (SC) reserved seat. Here, AIMIM’s Roshan Devi got 2,412 votes but some other smaller parties, and even NOTA, got more votes than AIMIM’s. The seat was won by JDU.

Another seat won by BJP with low margin was Pranpur in Katihar. The party won the seat by defeating Tauqeer Alam of the Congress with a margin of 2,972 votes. Here, AIMIM’s Hasan Mahmood Ahmad got just 508 votes while even an Independent candidate Ishrat Parween got 19,746 votes.

Division of Votes on Seats Won by NDA
Candidate Constituency (District) AIMIM Mahagathbandhan NDA Winner (Victory Margin)
Hadis Narpatganj

(Araria)

5495 69787 (RJD) 98397 (BJP) BJP

28610

Roshan Devi Raniganj (SC)

(Araria)

2412 79597 (RJD) 81901 (JDU) JDU

2304

Hasan Mahmood Ahmad Pranpur

(Katihar)

508 77002 (Congress)

Tauqeer Alam

79974 (BJP) BJP

2972

Alam Chhatapur

(Supaul)

1990 73120 (RJD) 93755 (BJP) BJP

20635

Md. Moqeem Sahebganj

(Muzaffarpur)

4055 65870 (RJD) 81203 (VIP) VIP

15333

Let’s now move to the 5 seats won by AIMIM. Did Owaisi’s party win these seats by defeating MGB candidates?

The table below will make it clear that the AIMIM won 4 of these seats by directly defeating NDA candidates, not MGB, and with huge margins–the highest above 50,000 votes. It defeated 2 candidates of JDU and 1 each of BJP and VIP. On Jokihat seat, AIMIM defeated sitting MLA of RJD Sarfaraz Alam.

AIMIM got its biggest victory margin in Amour seat in Purnia district where party’s Bihar president Akhtarul Iman polled 94,459 votes and defeated Saba Zafar of JDU with a whopping 52,515-vote margin. Saba Zafar had won this seat as BJP’s lone Muslim candidate in the 2010 Bihar assembly polls–he had won the seat by defeating Abdul Jalil Mastan of the Congress with a margin of 18,828 votes. This time, Mastan finished on the third position.

It is interesting to know that in the 2015 assembly elections, JDU had won 2 of these 5 seats, the Congress 2 and RJD had won 1 seat. All the winners were Muslim faces. This time, Muslim faces of AIMIM have won these seats.

Vote Share on Seats won by AIMIM
Seat (District) AIMIM 1st Runner-up 2nd Runner-up Victory Margin-AIMIM Winner in 2015
Bahadurganj

(Kishanganj)

Md Anzar Nayeemi

85855 votes

Lakhan Lal Pandit (VIP)

40640 votes

Md. Tauseef Alam (Congress) 30204 votes 45215 votes Md. Tauseef Alam (Congress)
Kochadhaman

(Kishanganj)

Muhammad Izhar Asfi 79893 votes Mujahid Alam (JDU) 43750 votes Mohammad Shahid Alam (RJD) 26134 votes 36143 votes Mujahid Alam (JDU)
Jokihat

(Araria)

Shahnawaz

59596 votes

Sarfaraz Alam (RJD) 52213 votes Ranjit Yadav (BJP) 48933      votes 7383 votes Sarfraz Alam (JDU)
Baisi

(Purnia)

Syed Ruknuddin Ahmad 68416 votes Vinod Kumar (BJP) 52043 votes Abdus Subhan (RJD) 38254 votes 16373 votes Abdus Subhan (RJD)
Amour

(Purnia)

Akhtarul Iman

94459 votes

Saba Zafar (JDU) 41944 votes Abdul Jalil Mastan (Congress) 31863 votes 52515 votes Abdul Jalil Mastan (Congress)

In the October 2015 assembly polls in Bihar, Owaisi’s AIMIM had fielded six candidates. They together polled 80,248 votes. Five out of six candidates had forfeited their deposits. However, four years later, in May 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the party fielded its state president Akhtarul Iman in Kishanganj and he got a record number of 2,95,029 votes but finished at No. 2. The seat was won by Congress candidate Dr Mohammad Jawaid.

Division of Votes on 19 Seats Contested by AIMIM
Candidate Constituency (District) AIMIM Mahagathbandhan NDA Winner (Victory Margin)
Mohammad Anzar Nayeemi Bahadurganj

(Kishanganj)

85855 30204 (Congress) 40640 (VIP) AIMIM 45215
Muhammad Izhar Asfi Kochadhaman

(Kishanganj)

79893 26134 (RJD) 43750 (JDU) AIMIM 36143
Md. Qamrul Hoda Kishanganj

(Kishanganj)

41904 61078 (Congress) 59697 (BJP) Congress 1381 M
Mahbub Alam Thakurganj

(Kishanganj)

18925 79909 (RJD) 22082 (JDU) RJD

23887 M

Shahnawaz Jokihat

(Araria)

59596 52213 (RJD) 48933 (BJP) AIMIM

7383

Hadis Narpatganj

(Araria)

5495 69787 (RJD) 98397 (BJP) BJP

28610

Roshan Devi Raniganj (SC)

(Araria)

2412 79597 (RJD) 81901 (JDU) JDU

2304

Md. Rashid Answer Araria

(Araria)

8924 103054 (Congress) 55118 (JDU) Congress 47936 M
Hasan Mahmood Ahmad Pranpur

(Katihar)

508 77002 (Congress)

Tauqeer Alam

79974 (BJP) BJP

2972

Goreti Murmu Manihari (ST)

(Katihar)

2475 83032 (Congress) 61823 (JDU) Congress 21209
Syed Ruknuddin Ahmad Baisi

(Purnia)

68416 38254 (RJD) 52043 (BJP) AIMIM 16373
Akhtarul Iman Amour

(Purnia)

94459 31863 (Congress) 41944 (JDU) AIMIM 52515
Md Shahbaz Alam Kasba

(Purnia)

5316 77410 (Congress) 60132 (LJP) Congress

17278

Rizwanullah Sikta

(Paschim Champaran)

8519 49075      (CPI-ML(L)) 35798 (JDU) CPI-ML(L)

2302

Alam Chhatapur

(Supaul)

1990 73120 (RJD) 93755 (BJP) BJP

20635

Md. Moqeem Sahebganj

(Muzaffarpur)

4055 65870 (RJD) 81203 (VIP) VIP

15333

Gore Lal Ray Sahebpur Kamal

(Begusarai)

7933 64888 (RJD) 50663 (JDU) RJD

14225

Kumari Pratibha Phulwari (SC)

(Patna)

5019 91124 (CPI-ML(L)) 77267 (JDU)

 

But AIMIM’s wait for victory in Bihar ended in October 2019 when the party opened its account in the state assembly by winning Kishanganj seat. Its candidate Qamrul Huda defeated BJP candidate Sweety Singh with a margin of over 11,000 votes. The ruling JDU of Nitish Kumar had backed the BJP candidate. However, in this election, AIMIM’s Qamrul Huda finished at No. 3

In the Assembly Elections 2020, AIMIM contested on 19 seats and won 5 of them. In all, the party has polled 5,23,279 votes, more than six times up from 2015.

theclarionindia
theclarionindiahttps://clarionindia.net
Clarion India - News, Views and Insights about Indian Muslims, Dalits, Minorities, Women and Other Marginalised and Dispossessed Communities.

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