Report reveals shifts in the country’s religious demographics over 65 years, sparks political discourse
Mohammad Alamullah | Clarion India
NEW DELHI — A survey report released by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) on Thursday sheds light on significant demographic changes in the country, particularly the rise of religious minorities juxtaposed with a decline in the majority Hindu populace.
The timing of the report titled “Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015),” in the middle of the general elections, with three rounds of the seven-phase polling already completed, has raised several eyebrows with critics posing probing questions. The release also has come amidst broader national discourse, fuelled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rhetoric against minority groups, notably the Muslim community. The discussions have ignited heated and acrimonious debates on religion-based reservations in the country.
According to the findings, there has been a discernible 7.82 percent decrease in the Hindu population since independence. At the same time, minority groups, including Muslims, Christians, Sikhs, and Buddhists, have experienced growth between 1950 and 2015. The report underscores a significant demographic shift over the past 65 years, revealing an 8-percentage-point decrease in the majority Hindu population from 1950 to 2015. Conversely, during the same period, there has been a marked increase in the majority Muslim population, particularly concerning comparisons with countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh. Additionally, the shares of Jains and Parsis in the country have also witnessed a decline.
Several intellectuals from the minority community and others have expressed concerns over desperate attempts by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to secure victory in the Lok Sabha elections. This desperation is particularly evident in Prime Minister Modi’s recent statements targeting Muslims, leading the party to employ all possible means, legal or illegal, to achieve its electoral goals. The party has always thrived on its anti-Muslim rhetoric, by whipping up communal sentiments and polarising the population to garner votes. This calculated approach has paid rich dividends. Thus, party leaders do not want to lose any opportunity to use the communal aces under their sleeves for electoral advantage this time around too.
The survey report indicates that the Muslim population in 1950 stood at 9.84%, experiencing growth to 14.09% by 2015, while the Hindu population declined from 84.68% to 78.06% during the same period. India witnessed one of the most significant declines in Hindu population after Myanmar, according to the report. Furthermore, the report presents a comprehensive overview of demographic changes across various communities in India over the past 65 years. Notably, it indicates a decline in the share of the Jain community from 0.45% to 0.36%, while the Parsi population decreased from 0.03% to 0.004% during the same period. Conversely, the Christian population has seen a marginal increase from 2.24% to 2.36%. Additionally, there has been a notable rise in the Sikh population from 1.24% to 1.85% and a significant increase in the Buddhist population from 0.05% to 0.81% over these six decades.
To grasp the implications of the survey report, insights were sought from Prof. Faizan Mustafa, Vice-Chancellor of Chanakya National Law University, Patna. Professor Mustafa emphasised the unmatched authenticity of the National Family Survey in conducting a thorough and credible census of castes under the Census Act. He highlighted the rigorous methodology and credibility of the National Family Survey compared to other reports.
A research scholar from Dr. K.R. Narayanan Centre for Dalit and Minorities Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia said the issue is primarily political. Requesting anonymity, he said the report’s release during the election season is ostensibly intended to incite the majority community. He said minority communities are primarily concerned about seeking livelihood opportunities and are not preoccupied with political or demographic concerns.
Responding to the BJP, and VHP leaders’ reactions to the EAC-PM report, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav offered a critical perspective. He raised a pertinent question: how can such conclusions be drawn about the Hindu and Muslim populations without the backing of a census? Accusing the Modi government of deflecting attention from pressing issues, Yadav emphasised the need to address real issues like inflation and unemployment.
He urged leaders, including Prime Minister Modi, to prioritise national concerns over communal sentiments. Yadav underscored the necessity for clarity on the census timeline and the specific report used to derive such conclusions.
