THE latest Israeli-US war on Iran began with airstrikes on the home and offices of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Apparently, the strategy behind this stemmed from the wishful thinking that Khamenei’s sudden elimination would pose a dire threat to the current ruling system of Iran and after his elimination, the country would be thrown into chaos. Further, this situation would be exploited by anti-clergy elements present in the country to foment a mass anti-government movement, resulting in the formation of a new government in Iran.
These calculations might have been supported by what happened earlier in Libya or Syria, after the elimination of Muammar Al-Qaddafi and Bashar al-Assad, respectively. However, the point of difference between them and Iran is that, while in those countries, the state’s future was tied to a single person. In Iran, the situation is completely different.
Few contemporary governments concentrate as much visible authority in a single office as Iran does in that of the supreme leader. Religious legitimacy, command of the armed forces, and ultimate political arbitration converge in this one post.
Immediately in the aftermath of Khamenei’s assassination, top surviving regime officials appointed a three-member Leadership Council consisting of President Masoud Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei and Alireza Arafi, a cleric and member of the Guardian Council—the powerful 12-member body that vets political candidates and can veto legislation passed by parliament.
Subsequently, the Leadership Council will step into the role of supreme leader until the next one is chosen. Iran’s Assembly of Experts – an elected group of 88 clerics whose candidacies are approved by the Guardian Council- will then be tasked with choosing the next supreme leader.
In 2024, the Guardian Council barred former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, a moderate whose administration signed the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, from seeking election for the Assembly of Experts.
Additionally, the clerics from Qom will also hold a key to the election of the next supreme leader.
Qom, a historical city in central Iran, is considered one of the most important religious places in the country. The city of Qom, its seminaries, clerical networks, and religious institutions, play a key role in Iran’s theological circles.
Qom is home to one of the largest and most influential Shia seminaries (hawza) in the world, the Hawzah ‘Ilmiyya Qom’. This network of religious schools includes hundreds of institutions that train tens of thousands of clerics, jurists, and scholars from Iran and across the Islamic World.
The city’s religious prominence is tied to the Shrine of Fatima Masumeh, a major pilgrimage site. Qom acts as the ideological brain and leadership pipeline of Iran’s theocratic state. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, clerics trained in Qom have shaped the country’s ideology and guided its system of governance.
Many of Iran’s political elite, including Supreme Leaders (from Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei), spent crucial years of their training or teaching in Qom’s seminaries.
The title Ayatollah (Sign of God) is not elected by public vote. It is a scholarly honorific awarded through recognition by peers and religious authorities, often within centres like Qom’s seminaries. A cleric must show exceptional mastery of Islamic law, ethics, and jurisprudence.
Importance of The Supreme Leader
Under Iran’s political system, the Supreme Leader holds the ultimate authority over all branches of government, including the military, judiciary, state media, and key policy decisions. Presidents and parliamentary bodies operate within limits set by the Supreme Leader’s guardianship.
This comes from the doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist), a principle put forth by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini that places a senior cleric at the top of both religious and state authority.
Originating from the Arabic and Persian languages, the term ayatollah symbolises a sign of god or religious authority. The title is granted to high-ranking Shiite clerics to demonstrate their advanced theological knowledge and moral authority in the community.
The title emerged in the late 19th century and became more prominent due to the Safavid dynasty in Iran, which made Shia Islam the state religion. Notable personalities like Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Majlisi helped cement the status of scholars, leading to the formalisation of the title.
Ayatollah Khomeini gained immense influence in the 1970s, particularly during the revolution of 1979, which led to the establishment of a theocratic government in the country.
The title is generally given to those who have completed extensive studies in Islamic jurisprudence and theology. The ayatollahs serve as spiritual leaders who guide both ethical and religious issues. It usually requires years of education to gain the title.
In modern times, the title is still widely used in Shia communities in Iraq, Iran and Lebanon, with ayatollahs continuing to shape Shia identity and political dynamics in the Middle East.
In Iran’s political-religious system, a Supreme Leader must be someone with religious legitimacy and authority. An ayatollah (and ideally a Grand Ayatollah) provides jurisprudential legitimacy to the office.
The Top Contenders
Mojtaba Khamenei, Ali Khamenei’s second son, is among the top contenders to succeed his father as the next Supreme Leader. He is known to wield significant influence among the administrators and the IRGC, the most powerful military body.
However, Khamenei’s lineage is also among the biggest barriers he faces. Ayatollah Khamenei was reportedly opposed to the father-to-son succession. It is also frowned upon in Iran, particularly after the US-backed monarchy of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was toppled in 1979.
Alireza Arafi, a 67-year-old cleric, is an influential figure in the Islamic republic’s religious establishment, but not a widely accepted political actor. He serves as the deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, the body responsible for overseeing the selection of the Supreme Leader, and has been a member of the Guardian Council, which vets election candidates and laws passed by parliament. He is also the Friday prayer leader of Qom and heads the country’s seminary system, overseeing clerical education nationwide.
Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, an ultra-hardline clerical voice in the establishment and a member of the Assembly of Experts, is widely known for his worldview critical of the West. He currently heads the Islamic Sciences Academy in Qom.
Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, a senior cleric who currently heads the judiciary of the Islamic republic. He was appointed to the role in July 2021 by the late Khamenei. He previously served as minister of intelligence from 2005 to 2009 and later as prosecutor-general and first deputy chief justice. He is regarded as a hardline figure aligned with the conservative wing of the regime.
Hassan Khomeini: His name is among the most discussed in succession talks for the next Supreme Leader. He is the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and also the custodian of his grandfather’s mausoleum in Tehran. While he has not held any public office, Khomeini is a reformist figure known for his rather moderate views on public life and policy. He attempted to run for the Assembly of Experts in 2016, but the vetting council disqualified him.
The coming days will reveal whether the IRGC and other elements of the country’s religious scholars can remain cohesive in the absence of its long-serving Supreme Leader.
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Asad Mirza is a New Delhi-based senior commentator on national, international, defence and strategic affairs. The views expressed here are the author’s own and Clarion India does not necessarily share or subscribe to them.
