12 Reasons Why July 2026 Has Become One of the Most Dangerous Months Ever

THE month of July began with several difficult, high-risk situations. Over the days, moreover, the situation in most contexts has continued to go from bad to worse so that, as this is being written on July 18, the month has already become one of the most dangerous ever. One can only hope and pray that the situation becomes better during the remaining days of the month. There are at least about a dozen worsening and dangerous situations that need to be carefully monitored and the risks involved need to be reduced.

1. First and foremost is the highly dangerous and worsening situation in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. With the United States under President Donald Trump uniting again with Europe to pursue a more aggressive policy of supporting Ukraine’s military effort, the situation starts looking more like Russia vs NATO which, of course, is very dangerous. As this writer has warned several times, under certain conditions this situation can drift suddenly towards a wider war, or even the Third World War, which could either go nuclear and a thermonuclear with the potential to destroy human life on an unprecedented scale. Three NATO member countries and Russia have about 11,000 nuclear weapons, including the thermonuclear ones, and if just 10% of these ever get used, it would mean the end of most life on earth due to direct and indirect impacts. What is extremely worrying is that peace processes are not progressing at all and tension flashpoints are increasing.
2. The Middle East situation has exploded again with the MOU breaking down and widespread attacks resuming. During the last week (July 11-17) Iran was hit very badly by the US repeatedly and in Iran’s counter attacks nine countries of West Asia have been hit. In addition, the situation in Lebanon remains tense and difficult, as also in Syria, while Saudi-Houthi hostilities have returned. Israeli attacks in Gaza continue, as also atrocities on Palestinians in the West Bank.
3. The civil war in Sudan continues with its very heavy human costs and there have been major concerns from recent developments. The situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo, particularly its eastern region, has been similar. The Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions remain high. Above all, there is the bigger risk of some of the African conflicts merging with each other to cause a bigger or wider African war. This can worsen with West Asian powers or other foreign powers supporting opposite sides with resources, weapons and even mercenaries.
4. Many other countries including Cuba, Venezuela, Haiti, Greenland, Panama, Myanmar, Libya, Afghanistan and others have faced increasingly difficult, uncertain and tense situations which have continued to worsen.
5. Several maritime routes have continued to become more and more risky. This is particularly true of maritime routes used for transporting oil and gas. While the Strait of Hormuz has been in news repeatedly, more recently with Houthi-Saudi clashes renewed, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait may also face higher risks.
6. The South China region has faced increasing tensions with relations of China and the Philippines coming under increased strain which may also lead to increasing tensions of China with the US and its close allies.
7. The forces which want forever wars have been getting stronger. The military industrial complex of the US is likely to get stronger with recently reported trends of growing integration with Europe and Israel, and with military budgets of the US as well as Europe increasing further. Corruption related to this complex is also increasing.
8.   The energy crisis for most countries has been worsening with many nations facing increasingly uncertain situation regarding essential energy supplies.
9. The economic crisis has worsened for many countries and a global crisis linked to energy disruptions and expanding wars can emerge. Recent trends in this direction have been highly disturbing. This is worsened by arbitrary trade and tariff decisions, or other arbitrary impositions by the powerful.
10. The worldwide humanitarian crisis has been steadily worsening, while resources to reach the affected people are falling far short of needs. At this very moment, millions of affected people, including children, face a threat to their life due to the denial of life-saving assistance. While the number of those needing urgent assistance was estimated to be about 239 million at the beginning of the year, new and worsening wars as well as disasters have increased the numbers, while the UN says it can arrange assistance only for about 87 million of the worst affected out of the 239 million identified earlier. In some of the worst-affected countries like Afghanistan, Niger and Mali, humanitarian assistance may be available only to about 10 to 15% of those needing this urgently.
11.  Climate change has been worsening while the response (including climate denial by some of the most powerful leaders) has fallen far short of the needs. Thousands of excess deaths caused by heat waves in richer countries have been reported in recent weeks, while even bigger tragedies in poorer countries remain unreported or under-reported.
12. In the middle of increasing threats to humanity and to other life-forms, the response of many powerful world leaders has been increasingly arrogant and refusal to accept the most essential responsibilities. Diplomacy has been seen to be increasingly weak and inadequate, while the conduct of international affairs is increasingly characterised by arrogance and arbitrariness, with the most shocking language being used (including profanities) of a kind seldom if ever seen or heard earlier in the conduct of affairs of critical importance at the highest levels. Meanwhile, the UN has been increasingly marginalised.

Clearly, in such a situation, a resurgence of the forces of peace, justice and protection of environment is needed, with people’s movements supported by millions working with the cooperation of top scholars, diplomats and experts to achieve major policy changes for peace and for protecting the life-nurturing conditions of the planet.

Bharat Dogra writes extensively on environment, development and welfare issues. The views expressed here are the writer’s own, and Clarion India does not necessarily subscribe to them. He can be reached at:[email protected]