Dr Syed Ali Mujtaba
THE Maharashtra Assembly election 2024 provides a lesson or two to political science students who watch democracy closely and cry at the ugly sight of the game of numbers, known to be the best form of governance in the world.
The election teaches us how Mr Wrong can become Mr Right.
It was BJP’s “Operation Lotus” that burglarized Balasaheb Thackeray’s Shiv Sena in 2022 and propped up Eknath Shinde, throwing at him the crumb of the chief minister’s post.
It was a CIA/FBI-type precise operation in which Shinde and his rebel MLAs were flown to Karnataka, then a BJP-ruled state, and then taken to Assam, the safe heaven ruled by the saffron party’s icon Himanta Biswa Sarma. How much money had changed hands buying each MLA to make the daylight robbery is a matter of conjecture. But the BJP and its cronies maintain that no poaching was involved.
This was proved right on the floor test of the house when the BJP provided official support to the rebel Shiv Sena group led by Shinde. This scripted the grey side of democracy.
It showed the world how the game of numbers can be played in a democracy and how people’s mandate can be subverted.
The BJP through its “Operation Lotus” sold the world the notion that people’s mandate has no role in democracy and it is the game of numbers that can change democratic mandate, and a loser can be turned a winner.
Well, that’s something of the past. The new one in the 2024 election was the battle of supremacy between the two Shiv Senas; one led by Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray and the ‘con’ faction of the Shiv Sena led by Shinde.
The game of numbers has once again belied the popular sentiments which were with Uddhav Thackeray and all the democracy-loving people wanted him to lead the state because he was wronged in 2022 due to “Operation Lotus.” But this week’s results suggest how people’s will can be set aside in the game of numbers and democracy can be made a mere spectator.
At the same time, the results did not bring any cheer to Shinde’s Shiv Sena either; BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis outflanked it, pushing it to a corner where it originally belonged.
“Operation Lotus”, which started in 2022, finally triumphed in 2024. In all likelihood, there will be a BJP government in the state after it lost power in 2019. Fadnavis will lead it with either Shinde or Ajit Pawar likely to be his deputy. Or both of them.
The Muslim Factor
There is nothing for the Muslims to cheer. The community will have only 10 MLAs in the new assembly; the same as in 2019. This is 0.03% of the total 12% Muslim population in the state.
In the 38 Maharashtra seats where Muslims make up more than 20% of the population, the BJP has raised its tally to 14 this time, up from 11 in 2019. The Congress showed the biggest slide, going down from 11 seats in 2019 to 5 in 2024. The AIMIM, touted as a Muslim party, dropped its strength from 2 to 1 that too with a winning margin of only 162 votes.
In the 38 seats with over 20% of the Muslim population the BJP won 14, Congress 5, Shinde Shiv Sena 6, Shiv Sena (UBT) 6, Ajit Pawar NCP 2, Samajwadi Party 2, NCP (SP) 2, and AIMIM 1.
The number of Muslim MLAs in Maharashtra has never gone beyond 13, reaching this in 1972, 1980, and 1999. The lowest tally was in 1995, at 8. This needs a huge introspection by the stakeholders within the Muslim community as to why they cannot increase their tally.
The spirit of democracy and the game of numbers suggest that Muslims should have at least 30+ MLAs in the 288-member assembly.
A Lesson to Learn
The RSS has played a pivotal role in shaping the outcome of the assembly elections.
After BJP’s debacle in Uttar Pradesh 2024 Lok Sabha election, the RSS adopted a more proactive approach in Maharashtra. Staying true to its tradition of operating behind the scenes, the RSS focused on silent but effective voter mobilisation efforts, particularly in urban areas which are also Muslim-dominated constituencies.
First, the RSS ensured a high turnout of voters in these cities and for this it created awareness and took the voters to the booth, playing the game of numbers by its rule book. This involved extensive groundwork by the RSS cadres, who leveraged their network of shakhas (branches) and affiliated organisations to reach out to the Hindu communities at the grassroots level.
RSS also capitalised on its apolitical yet influential voters who might not have been swayed by conventional party campaigns and remained fence-sitters.
The RSS’s priority was to engage urban voters, stressing the importance of “stability and development” under the BJP-led government.
Through door-to-door campaigns, community meetings, and informal gatherings, the Sangh successfully conveyed its message without overtly associating itself with political campaigning. This surge played a critical role in consolidating support for the BJP, particularly among the crucial middle-class voters.
The RSS’ involvement came with a clear caveat that Fadnavis should lead the state. The victory is not just a win for the BJP but also a reaffirmation of the RSS’ ability to shape political narratives and outcomes.
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Dr Syed Ali Mujtaba is a Chennai-based journalist. He can be contacted at syedalimujtaba2007@gmail.com
