S M Anwar Hussain | Caravan Daily
ASSEMBLY elections in Bihar are exactly a year away if held as expected in October and November next year. All the political parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Janata Dal (U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress, are the main stakeholders in the elections. Smaller political entities will as usual align with one of these parties.
The situation in state on the ground is fluid at present and is likely to remain so till the announcement of the elections. Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) is leading a conglomeration of different parties both big and small, including the BJP. But at the moment, it’s difficult to predict whether the motley crowd will stay together or fall apart. However, internal bickering in the ruling NDA can be clearly heard and felt, especially between the JDU and the BJP.
There are forces in the Bihar BJP which appear to be always in a mood to challenge the leadership of Nitish Kumar, the incumbent chief minister. These can be seen raising voice of dissent every now and then. They are either motivated by their own political ambitions or acting at the instance of party high command. Even today Nitish has Warne his detractors both within Jo and own party.
Nitish Kumar, being an astute politician, nowadays is walking on a tight-rope, keeping his flock on leash on the one hand and keeping a close watch on the moves of RJD’s leader Tejaswi Yadav on the other. If rumours doing rounds in the corridors of power are to be believed, Tejaswi is trying to stitch an alliance with BJP on two conditions.
First, the BJP should ensure that the post of chief minister goes to him. And second, it should pave the way for release of his father, the charismatic leader Lalu Prasad from prison. Going by the grapevine, the saffron party has made up its mind to reward him with the chair of deputy chief minister, but wants to retain the chief ministerial chair for Shshil Kumar Modi, the face of the BJP in Bihar.
This throws a big challenge for Nitish Kumar. He knows well that if the strong Yadav clan decides to dispense with the Muslim-Yadav (MY) formula, the BJP will sure dump him in favour of Tejasvi Yadav. Among the OBCs, he has another contender in Upendra Kushwaha, the leader of Rashtriya Lok Samta party (RLSP) . Jeetan Ram Manjhi, leader of Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) who once a trusted lieutenant is also baying for his blood.
Ram Villas Paswan, who is considered a weather cock, is never trustworthy. Kurmis and Keoris used to be the backbone of Nitish politics, but because of his long association with BJP, these two casts have become more communal. Nitish is trying to play his cards shrewdly. He is trying to woo Muslims as he knows well that if the Yadavs can add to the political weight to the BJP, he can compensate it by attracting Muslims to his side. He has recently announced some programmes to ameliorate the hurt sentiments of Muslims.
One of his significant announcements in this regard is opening of minority schools in every district of Bihar. On the one hand, he is trying to attract Muslim voters while on the other, does not want ultranationalist elements are not alienated. His volte face in the Rajya Sabha on the issue of tripple talaq and Kashmir policy are clear indicators of this approach.
On the Muslim side, although many cases of mob lynching have taken place, he is credited with containing communal flare up in the state and has swiftly and assiduously countered BJP’s attempts to foment communal riots. But, he is also accused of giving a free hand to Hindutwa elements to distribute swords among every Hindu household on the eve of the occasion of Ram Navami last year.
Asaduddin Owaisi’s party, the Hyderabad based All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen Muslim (AIMIM), will be in the fray, as it was in the last assembly elections, to get a foothold in the state, especially in the Seemanchal area. Kerala based Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) may also throw its hats in the ring to woo Muslim electorate wherever they are in a position to influence the poll outcome.
For the last 30 years, Muslims have been vigorously voting for Laloo Yadav and his allies. They looked at him as a messiah. Now, a kind of disappointment and disillusionment can easily be read on their faces. Also the worst defeat of the RJD and allies in the recently held parliamentary elections has forced them to revisit their political course.
Taking a cue, Muslim leaders have already started jumping out of Laloo’s boat and looking for space in the boat of Nitish Kumar. The BJP has already diminished the value of Muslim vote and the community today stands politically marginalised. And if they are pushed further to a state of dilemma before the election, they are bound to lose their political significance further.
Against this backdrop, the upcoming elections are likely to create a lot of confusion among Muslims. To sum up, Muslims, in the absence of worthwhile leadership in the state, are bound to go scatter. The BJP will sure use the situation to its advantage and reap the political dividends at the hustings. It’s high time political activists and intellectuals of the community sat together and agreed on one political course for the community.
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The author is ex-President of AMU Students Union. The views expressed here are his own.
