Mayawati’s party now faces the challenge of regaining voters’ trust and reassessing its strategy before the next assembly elections.
Mohammad Alamullah | Clarion India
NEW DELHI — After the first two phases of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, two key observations have emerged. Firstly, Muslim candidates from the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) face unexpected challenges in garnering support within their community. Secondly, in areas where BSP candidates are weak, voters from non-Jatav Dalits and extremely backward castes actively seek alternative options. These trends pose a concerning situation for Mayawati and her party.
Voting has concluded in 16 Uttar Pradesh constituencies so far. Among these, at least seven seats are traditional BSP strongholds where a coalition of Muslim and Dalit voters could secure a decisive victory. Seats like Saharanpur, Meerut, Bijnor, Nagina, Amroha, Moradabad, and Rampur hold the potential for such a coalition to win with ease. In constituencies like Pilibhit, Bulandshahr, Ghaziabad, Aligarh, and Gautam Buddha Nagar, the electoral balance tends to favour whichever candidate these influential voter groups rally behind.
This strategic consideration may have led BSP chief Mayawati to field Muslim candidates in Saharanpur, Amroha, Moradabad, Rampur, and Pilibhit. Although the BSP initially nominated a Muslim candidate for Aligarh, circumstances led to a last-minute change due to health issues. Bulandshahr and Nagina were thought to be secure seats for the BSP, with hopes of Muslim voter support. However, contrary to expectations, Muslims have shown a stronger inclination towards the INDIA bloc candidate in Bulandshahr and Chandrashekhar Azad in Nagina.
Similarly, BSP nominated Jat candidates from Bijnor, Rajputs from Ghaziabad and Gautam Buddha Nagar, a Tyagi from Meerut, a Brahmin from Aligarh, and a Gurjar candidate from Baghpat. Had Muslims and non-Jatav Dalits and extremely backward castes mobilised in support of these candidates, BSP might have regained its lost ground.
However, despite favourable circumstances, the party has not capitalised on them. There are several reasons for this. Firstly, minority voters are not convinced to trust the BSP. Secondly, apart from minorities, a group of Dalit-OBC voters believes that the INDIA bloc is better positioned to oust the BJP from power at the Centre.
Before the elections, there were rumours that Mayawati would ultimately join the INDIA bloc Although these rumours were later dispelled, Congress indeed sought to persuade the BSP chief until the last moment. Many Congress leaders, including Sonia Gandhi, prioritised alliance with BSP over Samajwadi Party. However, Congressmen believed their core voters could support BSP, but convincing upper caste and urban middle class voters, considered Congress’s core, to support the Samajwadi Party was nearly impossible.
Ultimately, Mayawati chose to contest the elections independently, focusing on the upcoming Uttar Pradesh assembly elections in 2027. Recognising the importance of maintaining a strong presence in the electoral landscape, she strategically distributed tickets and opted for a solo electoral bid. Additionally, BSP aimed to avoid diminishing its vote share by contesting on fewer seats, which could have adversely affected its national standing.
However, Mayawati’s attempts to forge a successful Muslim-Dalit alliance appear to have faced challenges again. Despite discontent among minority voters towards the Samajwadi Party and Congress for fielding non-Muslim candidates in Muslim-dominated constituencies, Muslims have preferred non-Muslim candidates from these parties over BSP’s Muslim candidates.
In constituencies like Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Kairana, Meerut, Baghpat, Bijnor, Amroha, Rampur, Moradabad, Bulandshahr, Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Aligarh, Mathura, and Pilibhit, Muslim voters have supported alliance candidates. Even in Nagina, there has been a notable inclination among Muslims towards Chandrashekhar Azad ‘Ravana’, leader of the Azad Samaj Party. This trend is likely to significantly impact the election results, posing challenges not only for Mayawati but also for the future trajectory of the BSP.
The question remains: why aren’t Muslim voters supporting the BSP? Even if they have reservations about upper caste candidates aligning with the BJP, one might expect them to support its candidates. However, this hasn’t happened. According to Bijnor resident Asad Ali, Muslims perceive Rahul Gandhi as the primary challenger to the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections, directing their support towards him as a steadfast opponent of the BJP’s agenda.
In summary, while there’s skepticism among some residents like Shahid and Mohammad Ali regarding BSP’s motives and effectiveness, Hussain Ali from Bulandshahr suggests that voters view the India Alliance as the sole option, especially in Lok Sabha elections.
The BSP now faces the challenge of regaining trust and reassessing its strategy before the next assembly elections, as failure to do so risks dispersing its support base and paving the way for new political alternatives.
