THE upcoming Assembly elections in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and the Union Territory of Puducherry are scheduled across April 9, 23, and 29, 2026. Tamil Nadu and West Bengal will vote in two phases—on April 23 and 29—while Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry will go to the polls in a single phase on April 9. Results for all five regions will be declared on May 4.
A total of 824 seats are at stake across these five regions: Tamil Nadu (234), West Bengal (294), Kerala (140), Assam (126), and Puducherry (30).
Tamil Nadu
The ruling DMK-led alliance is projected by pollsters to retain power, with an estimated 181–189 seats and around 40.1% vote share. A key advantage for the DMK is a divided opposition, with votes split between the AIADMK-led NDA and actor-politician Vijay’s newly formed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).
The AIADMK-led NDA is projected to secure 38–42 seats with about 29% vote share. Meanwhile, TVK, making its electoral debut, may win 8–10 seats with an estimated 23.9% vote share, drawing support particularly from young and first-time voters.
Analysts also point to internal challenges within the AIADMK, including factionalism, which could impact its performance.
Puducherry
The Union Territory will vote on April 9. Of the 33-member विधानसभा (including three nominated members), 30 seats are elected, with 16 required for a majority.
The contest is primarily between the ruling All India NR Congress (AINRC)-BJP alliance and the Congress-DMK alliance. The AINRC-BJP combine is banking on Chief Minister N. Rangasamy’s popularity and the perceived advantages of alignment with the Centre.
The Congress is contesting 16 seats and the DMK 14. Pollsters suggest the NDA could win 14–17 seats, giving it an edge, while the Congress-DMK alliance faces a tougher contest despite the DMK’s strength in neighbouring Tamil Nadu.
Kerala
Kerala’s 140-member Assembly will vote in a single phase on April 9. The contest remains largely bipolar between the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), with the BJP-led NDA aiming to expand its presence.
Poll projections indicate a close race, with no clear majority for either front. The UDF is expected to win 67–73 seats, while the LDF may secure 62–68 seats. The NDA is likely to win 1–2 seats, with others taking 0–3 seats.
In terms of vote share, the UDF is projected at around 42%, the LDF at 39%, and the NDA at approximately 15%.
West Bengal
The West Bengal Assembly elections will be held on April 23 and 29. Pollsters predict a tight contest between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP-led alliance.
The TMC is projected to win 140–160 seats, while the BJP-led alliance may secure 130–150 seats. Others are expected to win 8–10 seats.
Vote share estimates place the TMC at 43–45% and the BJP-led alliance at 41–43%, with others accounting for 13–15%. The narrow margin underscores the competitive nature of the contest.
Assam
Assam will vote on April 9 for its 126-member Assembly. Pollsters predict a clear advantage for the BJP-led alliance, which is projected to win 87–97 seats. The Congress-led alliance is expected to secure 26–36 seats.
In vote share terms, the BJP alliance is estimated at around 44%, compared to 36.7% for the Congress-led alliance.
Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is projected to retain office, with poll surveys indicating around 48% support for him, compared to 47% for Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi.
Outlook
If these projections hold, the results could provide momentum to the opposition INDIA bloc ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha elections, particularly if it performs strongly in key states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and West Bengal.
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Dr Syed Ali Mujtaba is a journalist based in Chennai. He can be contacted at syedalimujtaba2007@gmail.com
