DONALD TRUMP has adopted an aggressive, maximalist stance toward Iran, characterised by threats of extreme military action and demands for total surrender. Critics and Iranian officials have dismissed them as “absurd” and dangerous. Trump has threatened to “blow Iran and its cities to smithereens” if any harm comes to him from Tehran, citing unproven alleged threats against his life.
Trump demands Iran’s unconditional surrender, calling on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and military to lay down their arms, promising immunity in return. Trump restored his “maximum pressure” policy, aiming for a new nuclear deal that involves a complete halt to all Iranian uranium enrichment, a move Iran has rejected as “ridiculous”.
Trump also expressed a desire to have a say in choosing the next leader of Iran. He rejected specific, high-ranking officials and calling for the over-all overturning of the current regime. Trump had expressed disapproval of potential successors to the Iranian leadership, stating he believes he “must be involved” in choosing the next Supreme Leader. That irrational call of his was met with a mighty rebuff. The Assembly of Experts announced his selection following a “decisive vote”. The new leader was elected by the 88-member Assembly of Experts by an overwhelming vote.
Trump made his ask without even a rudimentary knowledge of the over-6000-year-old iconic civilisation that encompasses Iran had not place in a revered room of “experts” such as those who gathered to make the decision. How could he want a choice in the succession of the Supreme Leader? Such is his conceit and inanity?
Mojtaba Khamenei, 56 years, a powerful Iranian cleric and the son of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has now been elected. Known to be a behind-the-scenes powerbroker in Iran’s security and clerical establishment, he holds strong ties to the IRGC, also holding a mid-level cleric rank.
Mojtabha served in the Iran-Iraq War (roughly from age 17), forming, early, crucial relationships with commanders who later became senior leaders within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He has always adopted a “gatekeeper” role, and never held elected government position. He remained a trusted back-screen advisor under his father.
He is widely known to hold hardline views, opposed Western engagement and promoted reformist politics. He has been accused by opposition figures of orchestrating crackdowns on dissent, particularly following the 2009 election protests. His in-depth involvement in affairs of the State counted for his proximity to the IRGC. His role in his father’s inner circle made him a leading contender for the Supreme Leader position, despite his lack of a high-ranking (Ayatollah) clerical title. He has long been considered a key power broker behind the scenes, with strong connections to the IRGC and the Basij militia. He can be expected to remain close to the aligned groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis who the West carelessly refer to as the “proxies”. They, it must be known, are home-grown militant movements for justice but receive the moral and military support from Iran.
If Trump had expected a collapse after Khamenei’s Senior’s death, the transition was smooth and concluded with a process that had imperative support from the body of elected, vetted clerics.
Trump has threatened to wipe out any successor to the Ayatollah Khamenei. The Iranian system is iron-clad and will not collapse according to the whims and fancies of the psychopath Trump.
There are mixed signals that Trump announced on March 6 – “there will be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender.” He declared that he must have a voice in naming or at least approving Iran’s new leader, as he has just done in Venezuela. Iran’s political leadership is well aware that the removal of the new regime could lead to a power vacuum or balkanisation, rather than a stable, democratic outcome. So, Trump and the rest of the West who oppose the regime, better know that there will be an alert and agile governance in place – united against the Imperialist powers who will want to destabilise the regime.
Mojtaba Khamenei is also a grassroots pragmatist who will seek to ensure that the economic crisis will be handled astutely. When there is a negotiation, his priority will be to seek a dignified exit from the sanctions and to recover stolen assets now kept in the custody of western powers, notably the West. Mojtaba Khamenei is no newcomer to managing economics. Nor is he a newcomer to financial management considering his investment network worth hundreds of millions of dollars, potentially over $3 billion, with assets ranging from Persian Gulf shipping to luxury property in London and Europe.
Mojtaba Khamenei is viewed as a staunch supporter of the “Axis of Resistance” and is expected to maintain a confrontational stance toward the US and Israel, with some analysts suggesting he may even be more favourable to developing an Iranian nuclear weapons program than his father. The regime has been in a perpetual struggle against foreign enemies, which allows it to view internal dissent as foreign-instigated. Expect to see tough measures against externally induced interference and destabilisation. Also, expect to see hard core economic revision that satisfies the needs and demands of the economically deprived sections. The regime is attempting to manage the crisis by shifting to alternative financial systems, including cryptocurrency, to bypass sanctions.
Iranian officials likewise recognise that US attacks will keep being repeated until the United States is driven out of the Middle East. That goal is already beginning to see the light of day in the current war. Countries that host US army bases have been attacked with a severity that the GCC countries. Many will soon decide against hosting a sore in their vital spaces.
Recycling of petrodollars has been the basis of America’s financialisation and weaponisation of the world’s oil trade, and its imperial strategy of isolating countries that resist adherence to the US ruler-based order (no real rules, but simply US ad hoc demands). The presence in these GCC countries is not merely the US military presence in the Middle East plus its two commissioned armies, Israel and ISIS/al Qaeda jihadists. Mojtaba Khamenei will probably destroy the myth that the issue in the region is Iran’s nuclear capacities.
Iran is going to strategise strongly and differently to pre-empt further US and Israeli interventions under false pretexts. Having first and foremost, the United States must withdraw from all its military bases in the Middle East. Iran has already wrecked the backbone of radar warning systems and anti-aircraft and missile defense sites in Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, preventing them from guiding US or Israeli missile attacks or attacking Iran. Arab countries will probably find their US allies a nuisance rather than asset noting especially Iran’s accumulated power and strength to cope with Israeli-US interventions. After all, they have seen parts of Tel Aviv, Haifa, and other cities and towns reduced to rubble – Gaza-like situations – after Iran pounded them to wreckage.
After witnessing the rampage by Iran in the Gulf, Arab OPEC countries might hurriedly shut economic ties to the United States, starting with the US data centres operated by Amazon, Microsoft and Google. Iran will also proceed to validate the rewards of pricing their oil and gas in existing petrodollars. Up until now, these countries had to obtain US permission to quadruple their oil-export prices. Common sense, the fact of holding valuable oil-assets will prompt a quick transition. With BRICS growing at the pace it is, de-dollarisation could be rapid. It will be the decolonisation of oil trade and closing of ties with Asia and Global Majority countries.
Iraq has demanded that the US leave their country and stop thieving its oil – all to Israel’s benefits. Iran will not permit US aircraft or other military forces to use these bases. We have seen Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates already come under attack, leading Saudi Arabia to promise Iran not to permit the US military to use its territory for part of its war.
Iran will not allow the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other Near Eastern monarchies to retain US military bases. Iran has even demanded that Shi’ite populations in Jordan and other Near Eastern countries overthrow their monarchies to break away from US control.
Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are already discussing withdrawing from US and other investments, as Iran’s blocking of Hormuz has led them to stop producing oil and LNG now that their storage capacity is full.
Countries that have naively (and out of fear) joined Trump’s Board of Peace will soon quit knowing that the Board of Peace was, in any case, a rumpus for Jared Kushner to test out the gains of Real Estate profits.
Trump’s bombast and imperial arrogance may dominate headlines, but they cannot dictate the destiny of a nation as ancient, and resilient as Iran. Attempts to impose surrender, dictate leadership, or engineer regime change from Washington only deepen instability and expose the hollowness of American claims to uphold international norms. If the United States truly seeks stability in the Middle East, it must abandon coercion and respect the sovereignty of nations. Until then, Trump’s threats will remain what they already appear to the world to be – loud proclamations of power masking a declining empire’s inability to control the course of history.
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Ranjan Solomon is a writer, researcher and activist based in Goa. He has worked in social movements since he was 19 years of age. The views expressed here are the author’s own and Clarion India does not necessarily share or subscribe to them. He can be contacted at ranjan.solomon@gmail.com
