The five AIMIM legislators in Bihar become crucial if and when Nitish Kumar realigns politically, opting for a coalition with the Mahagathbandhan
Dr Tasleem Ahmad Rehmani
THE Bihar Assembly election results have once again positioned All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) leader Asaduddin Owaisi at the centre of a heated political argument both at the state and national stage.
Securing five assembly seats and garnering approximately 2% votes may appear modest in numerical terms, but the political ramifications of AIMIM’s success are huge. Owaisi’s party came in for severe and prompt accusation of “splitting the Muslim vote.” Furthermore, certain Muslim intellectuals, clerics and organisations also expressed analogous concerns on his electoral presence as a more significant threat holding him responsible for the landslide National Democratic Alliance (NDA) victory rather than looking at a potential opportunity.
The reactions from the so-called secular parties are understandable as they are fully dependent on Muslim votes for their survival. Any dent in this vote bank will apparently jeopardise their chances to occupy the treasury benches in future.
The discourse within the Muslim community regarding Owaisi’s politics is notably varied. However, there are individuals affiliated with secular parties who express their critiques as part of their political engagement; in contrast, some genuine and well-meaning community members, infer their opposition on the basis and influence of social media narrative rather than factual electoral statistics and analysis. Unfortunately, a broader challenge facing the community is the lack of any dedicated institution focused on a comprehensive election analysis. Consequently, opinions can sometimes be shaped by speculation rather than being based on hard facts.
The dynamics surrounding the AIMIM’s bagging five seats merit closer scrutiny. With almost equal vote share achieved by smaller NDA allies like HUM and RLSP becoming claimants of two ministerial berths in Bihar Cabinet is a mirror to AIMIM’s electoral impact. Notably, the BJP’s failure to secure five seats less than the expected number underscores the critical nature of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s allegiance. Should Nitish Kumar realign politically, he has all the potential to destabilise the current government. Nitish Kumar opting for a coalition with the Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance), the five AIMIM legislators become crucial. Similarly, if the BJP wins over Owaisi and he decides to support NDA with outside support or even otherwise it can continue its rule over Bihar without Nitish Kumar. Both factions are acutely aware of these political calculations.
Ideological adversity has never been a barrier to fruitful political coalitions. For instance, in 1939, the Muslim League and the Hindu Mahasabha joined hands in Bengal, Sindh and NWFP for coalition governments in the undivided India. V D Savarkar himself was heading Hindu Mahasabha, Fazlul Huq of Muslim League was chief minister and Shyama Prasad Mukherjee was his deputy. Following independence, Mukherjee joined Jawaharlal Nehru Cabinet as Industry Minister while heading the Hindu Mahasabha. Despite being political rivals, both Muslim League and Hindutva groups were not untouchable as far as the govt formation was concerned. This pattern persists in contemporary politics, where pragmatic alliances frequently emerge. Significantly, the BJP had engaged with the Muslim League in 2012 for its support in municipal governance in Maharashtra’s Nagpur and Mumbai Municipalities and during the 2018 civic elections in Bengaluru too. Eventually, political manoeuvres are often dictated more by numerical strategies than by ideological commitments.
The current political landscape reveals a notable vacuum, primarily due to the absence of a pan-India political alternative other than the BJP that possesses both ideological consistency and organisational strength. Many contemporary political formations are dominated by caste base dynasties or are heavily influenced by regional sentiments, factors that typically undermine their long-term viability. That’s why they don’t have any future making this vacuum more drastic.
These regional and dynastic parties are weakening, their target voters are drifting particularly the Yadavs in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, as well as significant segments in West Bengal, are increasingly switching their support toward the BJP. Additionally, tribal politics too is emerging fast with their leaders largely supporting BJP in Odisha, Tripura, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Gujrat and other Northeastern states. They may not stick to their current allegiance for long.
The BJP/RSS hierarchy has a keen understanding of this evolving political landscape and, in most cases, has played a role in shaping it.
Minorities, backward classes, SCs and tribal communities together represent a substantial portion of the population—over half of the country. Any potential national alternative to the BJP will need to emerge from within these groups, and this process must commence promptly.
Owaisi occupies a distinctive position in contemporary Indian politics. He is articulate, educated, and recognised as one of the sharpest political minds of our time. Even his critics concede his agility and insight. His slogan, “Jai Bhim, Jai Meem,” reflects a concerted effort to forge a Dalit-Muslim alliance. The recent strategies observed in Bihar with the BSP, alongside potential implementations in Uttar Pradesh, exemplify this approach. The electoral strength that arises from the combination of Dalits and Muslims is undeniable. However, what has been lacking is a partnership based on equality, with each group maintaining its own leadership, organisation, and bargaining power. Owaisi appears to grasp this dynamic well.
Nonetheless, challenges lie within his own party structure. The AIMIM operates as a family-run organisation, and the influence of dynasty politics could undermine its credibility in the long run. For Owaisi to emerge as a serious national leader who represents marginalised groups, he must democratise his party, cultivate leadership at both the state and district levels, and foster enduring grassroots movements. While social engagement is important, political mobilisation is critical.
Owaisi himself must be recognising these imperatives; why he is not adopting these measures are best known to him only. His willingness to act on them will not only shape his own future but also can fill the void evolving in political landscape of India. There exists a significant need for a credible, secular, and democratic alternative rooted in marginalised communities. Presently, no Muslim political figure possesses the unique combination of clarity, competence, and palpable national acclaim that Owaisi demonstrates.
By adopting a broader democratic vision and expanding his leadership beyond the confines of dynasty politics, Owaisi could emerge as a formidable national figure. In such a scenario, even the BJP might eventually find itself compelled to regard him not just as a rival, but potentially as a partner.
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Dr Tasleem Ahmad Rehmani is president of Muslim Political Council of India and a prominent political analyst. The views expressed here are the author’s own and Clarion India does not necessarily subscribe to them.
