[dropcap]E[/dropcap]lections are still a few months away. There are possibilities of recurrent changes in the likely results of the elections. It is quite possible that the ultimate scenario may not be as horrible as it looks now. But in all probability BJP will end up winning more seats than it has ever done in the past. This alone is enough reason to conclude that the Muslim representation in Lok Sabha may hit an all time low in the coming elections.
If we look at the table of Muslim representation in Lok Sabha since 1947, we find that it has been almost half of what it should have been. It has varied from the lowest of 21 in 1952 to 49 in 1980. The average comes to about 32 which is almost half of the average of 60 which should have been the case in accordance with the Muslim percentage in the population.
TABLE 1
Muslims in Lok Sabha
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No.
|
Year
|
Total elected members
|
Muslims elected
|
Expected representation on population basis
|
Deprivation %
|
I | 1952 | 489 | 21 | 49 | 57.14 |
II | 1957 | 494 | 24 | 49 | 51.02 |
III | 1962 | 494 | 23 | 53 | 56.60 |
IV | 1967 | 520 | 29 | 56 | 48.21 |
V | 1971 | 518 | 30 | 58 | 48.28 |
VI | 1977 | 542 | 34** | 61 | 44.26 |
VII | 1980 | 529*1 | 49** | 59 | 16.95 |
VIII | 1984 | 542 | 46** | 62 | 25.81 |
IX | 1989 | 529*2 | 33 | 60 | 45.00 |
X | 1991 | 534*3 | 28 | 65 | 56.92 |
XI | 1996 | 543 | 28 | 66 | 57.56 |
XII | 1998 | 543 | 29 | 66 | 56.06 |
XIII | 1999 | 543 | 32 | 66 | 51.52 |
XIV | 2004 | 543 | 36 | 66 | 45.45 |
Total | 442 | 836 | 47.12 | ||
Notes: *1: Elections were not held in Assam (12) and Meghalaya (1); 2:Source: Based on Ansari 2006, 99-102. |
TABLE 2
Nomination of Muslims for the Lok Sabha Elections by Major Political Parties
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||
Name of the political party
|
Average nomination
|
Ratio: elected to nominated
|
INC |
6.72%
|
1:2 |
BJS/BJP |
0.82%
|
1:10 |
CPI |
4.24%
|
1:9 |
CPI(M) |
9.34%
|
1:2 |
Janata Party/Lok Dal |
6.8%
|
1:5 |
Janata Dal |
9.04%
|
1:4 |
RJD |
14.79%
|
1:4 |
SP |
18.02%
|
1:7 |
BSP |
10.53%
|
1:17 |
Source: Based on Ansari 2006, 99-102. |