Past tense, future imperfect: It remains to be seen whether the foreign minister’s visit to Islamabad would be a turning point or another missed opportunity in the long and stressed history of India-Pakistan relations
Behzad Parvez | Clarion India
IN a diplomatic move that has baffled many geopolitical analysts, the Indian government has decided to send External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar to Pakistan to attend a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) conclave slated for October 15-16.
The visit, significant due to its rarity and symbolic importance, marks a critical juncture in the longstanding rivalry and often contentious relations between the two South Asian neighbours.
Describing it as a “good step” former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister and president of the National Conference Farooq Abdullah hoped that Jaishankar’s visit would improve ties between the two countries.
“Jaishankar ji is going to Pakistan for an SCO meeting. It’s a very good step. I hope both countries think along the lines of friendship,” Abdullah was quoted by PTI as saying in Srinagar after the announcement of the foreign minister’s visit to Islamabad.
The Hurriyat chairperson and Kashmir’s chief cleric, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, was also hopeful of some positives from Jaishankar’s visit to Pakistan. “Despite increased challenges, the resolve for peaceful resolution of the conflict remains stronger than ever. Generations of Kashmiris have been consumed by uncertainty. We want an end to it — a fair closure. India and Pakistan have a real opportunity at the upcoming SCO summit to break the ice and engage constructively. Hope they heed to it,” the Mirwaiz said.
Although both Pakistan and India have maintained that no bilateral parleys will be held on the sidelines of the conclave, Jaishankar’s visit suggests that ice has finally started breaking after a long hiatus.
Talking to the media, Jaishankar also said he expects media attention due to the sensitive nature of India-Pakistan ties, but his role will be focused on multilateral cooperation within the SCO framework. This clarity comes amidst significant anticipation over whether his visit might signal a thaw in the strained relationship between the two neighbouring countries.
History of Tension and Hostilities
India and Pakistan have had volatile relations since their partition in 1947. Issues such as territorial dispute over Kashmir, cross-border terrorism, and military skirmishes have dominated the narrative, severely limiting opportunities for constructive dialogue. Diplomatic ties have particularly been frosty since the 2019 Pulwama attack and the subsequent Balakot airstrikes by India, followed by the abrogation of Article 370 that revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir.
With tensions running high, formal high-level visits between officials of both countries have almost been non-existent. Previous dialogues, such as several peace efforts during 2004-2007, have often collapsed under the weight of mistrust and internal political pressures. Against this backdrop, Jaishankar’s visit to Pakistan is an unprecedented development.
Key Issues
Diplomats believe Jaishankar’s visit is aimed at opening channels of communication on several key issues, including:
Terrorism and Security: India’s primary concern has always been Pakistan’s alleged support for cross-border terrorism. Jaishankar is expected to raise this issue with his Pakistani counterparts, pressing for stronger actions against terror outfits operating from Pakistani soil.
Kashmir: Though a highly sensitive topic, discussions on Kashmir are anticipated to be part of the dialogue. India has consistently maintained that the region is an internal matter, while Pakistan has lobbied for international mediation. Whether or not the two sides find common ground on this issue remains to be seen.
Trade and Economic Cooperation: Despite political tensions, there have been murmurs in recent months about the potential for economic cooperation. Trade between India and Pakistan has severely been curtailed due to the strained relationship, but Jaishankar’s visit may well pave the way for discussions on resuming bilateral trade and economic exchanges, which could benefit both nations.
Regional Stability and Afghanistan: Both India and Pakistan are key players in the broader South Asian geopolitical landscape, particularly concerning Afghanistan. Since the Taliban’s return to power there, stability in the region has been a shared concern. A significant portion of the discussions may focus on how both countries can cooperate, despite their differences, to ensure a stable and peaceful Afghanistan.
Diplomatic Signals and Reactions
Jaishankar’s visit to Pakistan has drawn considerable attention from both regional and international observers. For India, this could signal a calculated effort to engage diplomatically while maintaining a firm stance on its core security concerns. Pakistan, on the other hand, has extended a gesture of goodwill, likely to improve its diplomatic standing amid mounting economic challenges and international scrutiny.
While the Pakistani government has expressed cautious optimism, it is important to note that not all stakeholders within the country may view this visit positively. Some hardliners, especially within Pakistan’s political and military establishments, remain sceptical of India’s intentions, fearing that dialogue could be seen as compromising on key national interests, such as Kashmir.
In India, the reaction has been mixed. While some welcome the opportunity for dialogue, others remain wary, especially given the long-standing trust deficit between the two nations. Jaishankar, known for his pragmatic and hard-nosed diplomatic approach, is unlikely to soften India’s stance on core issues, but his visit is viewed as a strategic step toward managing an extremely complex and often hostile relationship.
Challenges Ahead
Despite the diplomatic overtures, the road to lasting peace between India and Pakistan is fraught with challenges. The deep-seated mistrust on both sides, along with internal political dynamics, poses significant hurdles to any lasting resolution. For instance, militant groups within Pakistan have historically opposed peace with India, and their influence could spoil the chances of any meaningful progress. Moreover, domestic political considerations will likely shape the extent to which leaders are willing to make concessions or engage in sustained dialogue.
Jaishankar’s visit to Pakistan, while still in its early stages, has the potential to usher in a new phase of Indo-Pak relations. Though expectations for a breakthrough are tempered by decades of mistrust, even the opening of lines of communication represents a step in the right direction. The visit reflects a mutual recognition that dialogue, no matter how challenging, is crucial for regional peace and stability.
As the world watches closely, the success or failure of this diplomatic outreach could have far-reaching implications for South Asia and beyond. Whether this visit will be remembered as a turning point or another missed opportunity in the long and fraught history of India-Pakistan relations remains to be seen.