THE 47th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit and related meetings began in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Sunday (26 October) under the theme “Inclusivity and Sustainability.” The summit is keenly watched due to the absence of the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and presence of US President Donald Trump, who’ll try to get a deal done with the Chinese leadership present at the summit.
Prime Minister Modi did not travel to Malaysia but instead virtually attended the ASEAN Summit’s inaugural ceremony on Sunday. In a social media post on Thursday, Modi said that he held a conversation with his Malaysian counterpart, Anwar Ibrahim, and congratulated him on Malaysia assuming the ASEAN chairmanship.
Prime Minister Ibrahim is hosting leaders from ASEAN member states, along with top officials from the US, China, Japan, South Korea, and other key partners, for the three-day summit. More than 30 heads of state and government from the 10 member states of the association, commonly referred to as ASEAN, are invited.
Among the invitees from outside the ASEAN bloc is President Trump. Prime Minister Modi will be conspicuous by his absence in Kuala Lumpur. Currently the bromance between the two leaders seems to have vanished, as both claim to be working in the interest of their countries. Modi by buying Russian oil, despite American tariffs threat and Trump determined to stop India from the cheap Russian oil. Meanwhile, both leaders have tried to downplay tensions as the tariff standoff continues.
However, Modi’s decision could be described as one based on principles, the most obvious one being economic but also siding with a longtime trusted ally. While on the other Trump might have brought-up the issue during a much-expected meeting between the two, but the core of his travel to Kuala Lumpur is to ease tensions with China, over tariffs imposed by him on Chinese goods.
At the moment the bromance between the two leaders seems to be facing choppy waters. When Modi and Trump shared a bear hug at the White House in February, expectations were high that the warm relationship the leaders enjoyed during Trump’s first term would continue. However, India soon realised it would not receive special treatment as Trump rolled out sweeping tariffs, which included a 25% levy on some Indian exports.
In August, the Trump administration said India’s purchases of Russian oil were funding Moscow’s war in Ukraine, and slapped on an additional 25% tariff, bringing the total to an eye-watering 50%, souring US-India ties to their lowest point in decades. Last week, Trump rocked the boat further by claiming for the first time that Modi “assured” him that India would stop buying Russian oil.
However, Reuters reported on Thursday that the top Indian buyer of Russian crude oil, Reliance Industries, was preparing for a “massive cut” in Russian oil imports. “We don’t anticipate it will go to zero immediately as there will be some barrels coming into the market” via intermediaries, a refinery source told the news agency on condition of anonymity. “Recalibration of Russian oil imports is ongoing and Reliance will be fully aligned to the Government of India’s guidelines.” a Reliance spokesperson told Reuters.
The report comes after the US announced landmark new sanctions on Russia’s largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, which US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said were responsible for funding the Kremlin’s “war machine.”
The move, the first direct targeting of Russia’s war from the second Trump administration, freezes all US assets belonging to the Russian oil giants, while allowing for secondary sanctions on foreign banks that do business with them. This could mean banks in India would face penalties for facilitating Russian oil imports.
As the Russian oil rumours swirl, India’s Foreign Ministry has continued to emphasise that the country’s priority remains maintaining Indian energy independence and keeping energy prices low for consumers.
Last week, Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said Washington had shown interest in deepening energy cooperation and talks on that were underway. Jaiswal had emphasised that India’s priority on oil imports was to “safeguard the interests of the Indian consumer in a volatile energy scenario.”
India’s oil purchases from Russia grew nearly 19-fold from 2021 to 2024, from 0.1 to 1.9 million barrels a day, making Russia India’s top source of crude oil. In 2022, New Delhi began buying barrels from Russia at a discount after Moscow launched its war and was hit with sanctions to cut off oil revenues. India has argued that at one point, the US had actively supported Indian oil purchases from Russia to help stabilise global oil prices.
Meanwhile, President Trump has said he was confident of hashing out a deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping, after top economic officials from both countries reached a preliminary consensus in trade talks that concluded on Sunday.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and top trade negotiator Li Chenggang in Kuala Lumpur for a fifth round of in-person discussions since May. “I think we have a very successful framework for the leaders to discuss on Thursday,” Bessent told reporters.
Bessent told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he anticipated the agreement would defer China’s expanded export controls on rare earth minerals and magnets and avoid a new 100% US tariff on Chinese goods threatened by Trump.
He said Trump and Xi would discuss soybean and agricultural purchases from American farmers, more balanced trade and resolving the US fentanyl crisis, which was the basis of 20% US tariffs on Chinese goods.
Trump arrived in Malaysia on Sunday, his first stop in a five-day Asia tour that is expected to culminate in a face-to-face with Xi in South Korea on October 30. After the trade talks, he struck a positive tone, saying, “I think we’re going to have a deal with China”.
The two leaders have spoken at least three times this year and Trump has said direct talks are the best way to resolve issues including tariffs, export curbs, agricultural purchases, fentanyl trafficking, geopolitical flashpoints such as Taiwan and the war in Ukraine.
“We’ll be talking about a lot of things. I think we have a really good chance of making a very comprehensive deal,” he said.
Among potential agenda items is the US’s Taiwan policy. Xi has pushed for Washington to officially declare that it “opposes” independence for the self-ruled democracy, a concession that would amount to a major diplomatic win for Beijing. The longstanding US position is that it does not support Taiwan’s independence. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Saturday the Trump administration will not abandon long-standing US support for Taiwan in the negotiations.
It would not be wrong to surmise that Prime Minister Modi has exhibited the tough resolve of a good diplomat by not choosing to attend the ASEAN Summit and tossing the ball into the opponent’s current. While for President Trump it could be said that currently he seems to be more focussed on China and workout a mechanism by which the US could get the Chinese rare earth minerals, without any hindrance, and overall, his intentions seem to be obviously selfish, during his Asia tour.
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Asad Mirza is a New Delhi-based senior commentator on national, international, defence and strategic affairs. The views expressed here are the author’s own and Clarion India does not necessarily share or subscribe to them.
