The political future of Haryana hangs in the balance with the potential for significant shifts in voter behaviour as the parties finalise their strategies these days ahead of the polls
Team Clarion
NEW DELHI — Haryana is gearing up for its assembly elections on October 5, with major political parties unveiling their candidate lists that reveal a strong focus on caste dynamics. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress are making strategic decisions in ticket distribution to appeal to various caste groups, including the significant Muslim community.
The BJP has allocated 15 tickets to the Jat community, which makes up around 17% of the total 90 assembly seats. This number reflects a decrease from previous elections; in 2019, the BJP fielded 19 Jat candidates, and in 2014, the count was as high as 24. Political analysts suggest this reduction indicates a shifting strategy as the party responds to changing political sentiments.
In contrast, the Congress party has prioritised Jat representation, granting 28 tickets to Jats—approximately 31% of the total seats—aligning with their demographic representation of about 27% in Haryana. Analysts warn that the BJP’s reduced emphasis on Jat candidates could be detrimental, especially considering the party’s previous successes in Jat-dominated constituencies like Rohtak, Sonipat, and Hisar. The ongoing farmer protests have strained the BJP’s relationship with the Jat community, many of whom are landowners and farmers.
While the focus has primarily been on Jat and OBC communities, the Muslim electorate—comprising about 20% of the population—remains crucial. Both parties understand the importance of appealing to Muslim voters, particularly in constituencies with significant Muslim populations.
Congress has historically garnered support from Muslim communities, often championing secularism and inclusivity. This election cycle, the party has fielded candidates who resonate with Muslim voters, especially in urban areas and regions with large Muslim populations. A Congress spokesperson stated, “We are committed to ensuring that all voices are heard, especially those from minority communities.”
On the other hand, the BJP is attempting to reach out to Muslim voters by promoting development narratives and highlighting welfare schemes that benefit all communities. However, this approach has met with skepticism due to past controversies surrounding religious sentiments. A BJP leader said, “We believe in development for everyone, and our initiatives aim to uplift all sections of society.”
The BJP’s commitment to OBC representation is clear, issuing 11 tickets each to Brahmins and Punjabi Khatris, who make up about 8% and 9% of Haryana’s population, respectively. This allocation represents 24% of the total seats for these communities, whereas Congress has given five tickets to Brahmins and six to Punjabis.
The BJP’s focus on Punjabi Khatri votes is closely aligned with Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar’s background. The decision to increase the number of Punjabi candidates to 11—up from nine in the last elections—highlights this strategy, particularly in regions where Punjabis and other OBC groups are prevalent.
The BJP’s choice of incumbent Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, a prominent OBC leader, to contest from the Ladwa seat illustrates its aim to solidify OBC support in significant areas. OBCs account for 40% of Haryana’s population, making them a crucial voter bloc for both parties.
However, the exclusion of certain influential OBC leaders has sparked discontent. Karan Dev Kamboj, the BJP OBC Morcha president who lost to Congress’s Bishan Lal Saini in Radaur during the last elections, was not granted a ticket this time. His resignation from the BJP to join Congress underscores the BJP’s preference for larger OBC groups over smaller communities.
Since its establishment in 1966, Haryana’s political landscape has been deeply influenced by caste dynamics. The Jat community has historically dominated politics, with notable leaders shaping the narrative. However, the BJP’s rise began after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, driven by Modi’s popularity and strategic alliances.
As the elections approach, both major parties are acutely aware of the need to navigate these complex caste dynamics carefully. The upcoming assembly elections not only highlight the ongoing evolution of Haryana’s political landscape but also underscore the importance of caste and communal identities in shaping electoral strategies.
As candidates prepare to engage with their constituencies, the pivotal question remains: will the BJP’s attempts to consolidate support among OBCs and upper castes, along with a more inclusive approach towards Muslims, prove successful, or will the Jat community’s discontent and Muslim voter sentiments shape the election’s outcome? The political future of Haryana hangs in the balance, with the potential for significant shifts in voter behaviour as the parties finalise their strategies in these crucial days leading up to the polls.
