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From 62 to 22 Seats in Delhi Assembly: Is AAP’s Political Future in Jeopardy?

Md Naiyar Azam | Clarion India

THE National Convener of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and former Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal is again on the firing line of Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The criticism this time is for his traveling in a large motorcade to Punjab.

On March 5, Kejriwal and his family reached the Dhamma Dhaja Vipassana Centre in Anandgarh, Punjab, to enjoy a 10-day retreat. His motorcade included more than three dozen cars, over 100 Punjab Police officers, jammers, an ambulance, and a security detail of commandos. Kejriwal faced severe criticism over this misuse of official machinery as he no longer occupies any constitutional position owing to his and his party’s drubbing in the recent elections.

Congress leader Sandeep Dikshit called it “extravagance” and BJP leader Manjinder Singh Sirsa asked, “Why are taxpayers’ money and government resources being used to fund Kejriwal’s Vipassana retreat?”

AAP leaders did not comment on the issue.

Political Shift

It has been over a month since the Delhi Assembly election results were announced. BJP is back in power in the national capital after 27 years, with Rekha Gupta taking over as the chief minister. Kejriwal’s AAP government lost power after nearly 11 years.

In the previous two elections (2015 and 2020), AAP registered a landslide victory. Strangely, in the Lok Sabha election, the BJP swept all seven Delhi seats in 2014, 2019, and 2024. But this year’s Delhi Assembly election results have broken the trend.

This time around, BJP bagged 48 out of 70 seats, whereas AAP got just 22 seats. Congress failed even to open an account. But the percentage difference in voting between AAP and BJP wasn’t that large — 45.57% for BJP, while AAP received 43.57% votes cast.

In 2020, AAP secured 62 seats out of 70, whereas the BJP was restricted to just 8 seats. AAP’s vote percentage was 53.57%, whereas the BJP had 39.77% votes.

Challenges Ahead

After this defeat, political experts see the AAP losing its grip over Delhi threatening its future.

Prof Sanjay Kumar of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) and a specialist in electoral politics commented: “AAP has reached a difficult phase. They are no longer in power, and their leadership has been defeated in elections.” The condition will deteriorate if Kejriwal or (former deputy chief minister Manish) Sisodia are convicted in the Delhi liquor scam.”

He said if AAP had won more than 22 seats with Kejriwal, it would have been a good sign, but winning over 25 seats without him wouldn’t be the same.

Rajendra Pal Gautam, a two-time Cabinet minister in Kejriwal government who has now joined Congress said AAP has no future because it does not have a strong ideological base. “The party adheres to Hindutva and Manusmriti-based ideologies, which the BJP has been practicing for a long time. No other party can survive with the same ideology as BJP.” He also reasoned that “parties like the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) flourished because Congress had temporarily strayed from its path, while these parties propagated social justice, equality, and constitutional values.”

What Next for Kejriwal?

When asked what was next for Kejriwal, Prof Kumar said he doesn’t think the former chief minister will try to get into Rajya Sabha, Lok Sabha, or even the Delhi Assembly again soon. “In the next two years, there will be assembly elections in Punjab, and Kejriwal should focus on strengthening AAP’s organisation. He needs patience, which is something he does not have.”

Congress leader Gautam said Kejriwal should go back to his original vision and the ideology that made him join politics in the first place.

Anti-Incumbency or BJP Strategy?

Prof Kumar holds AAP responsible for several unkept promises. “AAP couldn’t fulfill many of its key promises. The last two years were particularly tough for them. Kejriwal’s image suffered due to the liquor scam and corruption allegations, fuelling the anti-incumbency wave,” he said.

Meanwhile, Gautam believes that AAP ignored key issues concerning Muslims and Dalits. “During the COVID-19 pandemic, Kejriwal spoke against the Tablighi Jamaat. He remained silent on the Delhi riots. On the other hand, the BJP used all its resources — money, power, and strategy — to win the elections. The Election Commission also helped them, and so did agencies like ED and CBI,” he said.

Did Congress Contribute to AAP’s Defeat?

Prof Kumar refutes this perception. “No, just like AAP attributed all its previous successes to itself, it has to own up to this defeat too. AAP itself chose to end its partnership with Congress post-Lok Sabha elections.”

Gautam, on the contrary, insists that Congress is the nation’s oldest party and AAP cannot afford to turn a blind eye towards it in its endeavour to take on the BJP.

Both Prof Kumar and Gautam agree that all issues like the Yamuna cleaning project, the liquor policy, the CAA protests, the Delhi riots, and Kejriwal’s inability to speak up on key matters contributed significantly towards AAP’s downfall.

“For AAP and Kejriwal to remain relevant in politics, they need patience,” said Prof Kumar. “The court’s verdict in the liquor scam case will be crucial for AAP’s future,” he added.

BJP legislator from Trilokpuri, Ravikant Ujjain, said bluntly that Kejriwal should quit politics. “He entered politics with tall promises, but they all turned out to be false. The people of Delhi have placed their trust in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s guarantees instead,” he said.

AAP leader and its former legislator, Durgesh Pathak, denied the charges, stating, “Winning and losing are the ways of elections. This is a difficult moment for us, but if the people of Delhi wish, we will return.”

When questioned regarding the loss, he attributed the loss to voting irregularities, saying, “We lost by just a 2% vote margin. A large number of names were struck off the voters’ list. Money was doled out. The election process was rigged, and the media didn’t bring this to light,” he alleged.

Before the assembly elections, both AAP and Congress had accused the BJP of removing thousands of names from the voters’ list. In this regard, the Election Commission called an all-party meeting on the issue. But it failed to satisfy AAP and Congress while the BJP reposed faith in the election process.

Pathak attributed the party’s loss to an interplay of all the above factors. When asked who between the BJP and Congress hurt AAP’s prospects more, Pathak said, “Neither. The plain fact is that the people of Delhi didn’t bless us this time. Nevertheless, we won 22 seats and got 41 lakh votes, and we will keep working for those who voted for us.”

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Md Naiyar Azam is a freelance journalist. He is pursuing Master’s degree in Convergent Journalism from Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi. The views expressed here are his own and Clarion India does not necessarily agree with them.

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