With the height of 272 metres, the Diamer-Bhasha dam is touted to be the tallest dam in the world and a third gigantic dam in Pakistan

Syed Ali Mujtaba | Clarion India

China is closing in on India at Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and has opened a new flashpoint with the construction of Diamer-Bhasha Dam in PoK. The way India has opposed the construction of the dam, it seems that after Ladakh, the PoK could be the next big flashpoint between India and China.

Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan on July 15 kicked off the construction work for the multibillion-dollar dam project.  The Pakistan government in May signed a whopping Rs 442-billion contract with a joint venture of a Chinese state-run firm and a commercial arm of Pakistan’s military for the construction of this dam.

China Power, a Chinese state-run firm, holds 70%, and Pakistan’s Frontier Works Organisation (FWO), a commercial arm of its Armed Forces, holds 30% share in the consortium to build the Diamer-Bhasha dam.

Pakistan’s Council of Common Interests (CCI) approved the construction of the project in 2010. However, it suffered delays because international lending agencies associated with the project backtracked due to opposition from India. Pakistan finally gave the contract to China that covers construction of a diversion system, the main dam, an access bridge and the 21-megawatt Tangir hydropower project.

The dam will have a gross storage capacity of 8.1-million-acre- feet (MAF) and a power generation capacity of 4,500-megawatt. Its presumed value is 1,406.5 billion Pakistani rupees and the project is expected to provide at least 16,000 jobs, slated to be completed by 2028. With the height of 272 metres, the Diamer-Bhasha dam is touted to be the tallest dam in the world and a third gigantic dam in Pakistan after Tarbela and Mangla dams.

In May, India had vehemently objected to the construction of the multipurpose dam, denouncing the project by calling it a violation of its territorial sovereignty. India has opposed the move on the grounds that the Gilgit-Baltistan region is part of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir and all such projects in the Indian territories that are currently under Pakistan’s occupation are illegal.

“This dam will lead to submergence of a large part of the land of the Indian Union territories of J&K and Ladakh and we condemn the continuous attempts by Pakistan to bring about material changes in Indian territories under its illegal occupation,” Ministry of External Affairs Spokesperson Anurag Srivastava said.

China has rejected India’s concerns, calling them misplaced, and asserted that the economic partnership between China and Pakistan are directed at enhancing development and the welfare of people.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told a media briefing in Beijing that it was part of a “win-win” bilateral cooperation to promote the wellbeing of the local population and the dam would accelerate development and create job opportunities, besides improving availability of water and clean energy.

With regard to India’s objection that PoK is an inalienable part of India, the Chinese spokesman said, “China’s position on the issue of Kashmir is consistent and it considers Kashmir is a historical baggage that has to be unloaded as per UNSC relevant resolutions.”

Since the major part of the Diamer-Bhasha dam is located in Gilgit-Baltistan, China has directly crept into the theatre of Kashmir conflict.  The construction of the dam has brought a new dimension into the Kashmir conflict and may become a source of conflict in the region.

Michael Kugelman, Deputy Director at the Asia program of Wilson Center at Washington DC, says; “exploiting India’s vulnerabilities is an essential element of China’s “contain India” policy.”

“It is only a matter of time that China’s expansionist strategy in Kashmir is more visible and India will have no option then to challenge Chinese belligerence just like they did in Doklam, North Sikkim or Ladakh,” Kugelman added.

The US academic sees the growing Chinese investments in Pakistan-administered Kashmir as a strategy of closing in on India. Kugelman  warns that Kashmir could emerge as the next big flashpoint between India and China where Pakistan will have a pivotal role to play.

According to Kugelman, these moves will bring one more tension to the already strained India-China relationship. He was referring to the tense situation in Ladakh where Indian and Chinese troops are locking horns on the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

The Chinese investment in PoK for the Diamer-Bhasha dam has attracted  an alarming response from India’s defence head. Chief of the Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat has repeatedly talked about two front wars. About the LAC standoff, General Rawat has said, if negotiations fail with China, then India is ready with the option of war. Rawat is also of the view to bring the US into the theatre of the India-China-Pakistan conflict. He has given a statement that India should join ‘Quad’ to contain China in the South China Sea.

Chinese moves in Kashmir have certainly aggravated strains to the already-strained ties between India and China. The tension will involve Pakistan and the fact is all three are nuclear-armed neighbours, and hence the prospect of the ‘Day After’ is chilling.

Many Indian experts have expressed concerns over the alarming situation developing on the LAC and LOC and attribute it to the ill-conceived hardline policies of the BJP government towards Kashmir, Pakistan and China.

The alarming situation has its echoes from the BJP’s historic judgment of abrogating Article 370 and taking away the special status from Jammu and Kashmir. The BJP with such acts, instead of cooling down the temperatures, has added fuel to the fire and has complicated the situation on the ground.

War as an exit option from such a complicated situation sends chills in the spines of many Indians. The BJP government is under the impression that China is another Iraq or Afghanistan where the US may assemble a coalition of forces and come to India’s rescue. If the US does not come for India’s defence, can India hold the ground on its own?

This war of attrition started by the BJP for its domestic consumption may go out of control and, in such a situation, anything could happen. The BJP may not be there to see the remains of the day, but whether common Indians will be able to cope up with such a situation is the big question that needs to be answered.

The best bet for India is to refrain from war-mongering and cool down the temperatures that have reached a new high in the India-China and India-Pakistan relationship.

Dr Syed Ali Mujtaba is a Chennai-based author, academic and political analyst. The views are personal and Clarion India does not necessarily support or share them