TAMIL NADU is set to go to the Assembly polls in April 2026, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the state on January 23 formally kicked off the political battle. Addressing a series of public meetings, Modi launched a frontal attack on the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), accusing it of corruption, criminality, and fostering a “mafia raj.”
Projecting the BJP as an alternative force in the Dravidian heartland, the Prime Minister said Tamil Nadu must be “freed from the chains of the DMK.” He alleged that the party had turned the state into a drug-ridden hub and betrayed public trust by running the government through corruption and crime.
Modi claimed the DMK made “heaps of promises” but failed to deliver development, coining the phrase “CMC rule” — Corruption, Mafia and Crime — to describe the party’s governance. He also targeted dynastic politics, alleging that the DMK serves the interests of a single family and lacks democracy and accountability.
Stalin’s Counterattack
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin dismissed Modi’s allegations, mocking the BJP’s much-publicised “double-engine” governance model as a “dabba model” — an empty and ineffective idea that, he said, would never succeed in Tamil Nadu.
Responding sharply to the charge of underdevelopment, Stalin said BJP-ruled states lag behind Tamil Nadu on several key development indicators. Despite what he described as obstacles created by the BJP-led Centre, he said Tamil Nadu had achieved historic growth.
Drawing comparisons, Stalin argued that non-BJP-ruled states such as Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Telangana, Karnataka and West Bengal are “soaring high” in development, unlike BJP-ruled states including Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar.
Political Landscape of Tamil Nadu
The DMK currently leads the Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA), comprising the Congress, Left parties (CPI and CPI-M), Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), MDMK and IUML. The alliance focuses on social justice, regional identity and welfare politics.
The AIADMK, which traditionally led the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the state, severed ties with the BJP after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Since then, the BJP has been attempting to expand its footprint independently or through smaller alliances.
Other players include the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), and Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), which either shift alliances or contest on their own.
Key Political Trends
Tamil Nadu has long been dominated by a bipolar Dravidian political structure led by the DMK and AIADMK, with power alternating between the two on the strength of welfare-driven populism. No party has won an outright majority since 1996, making alliances with smaller caste-based and regional parties crucial.
Language and Tamil identity remain central to state politics, often standing in opposition to the Hindutva-driven narrative perceived as being imposed from North India. Dravidian politics thrives on resistance to such cultural and political centralisation.
The AIADMK, once a formidable force, is now weakened by internal divisions and leadership struggles, reducing it to a shadow of its former self.
Cinema also continues to influence politics. Actor Vijay has launched the Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), while actor Seeman’s NTK has gained enough votes to secure recognition from the Election Commission. The DMDK, founded by actor Vijayakant and now led by his wife Premalatha, remains relevant, though diminished.
The PMK, representing the Vanniyar community, is currently split between founder Dr S. Ramadoss and his estranged son, former Union Minister Dr Anbumani Ramadoss.
BJP’s Struggle for a Foothold
Tamil Nadu today presents a fractured political landscape, with the BJP striving to carve out a “saffron space” in a state historically resistant to its ideology. Despite deploying extensive resources in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP failed to make significant gains, as Dravidian identity proved resilient against Hindutva politics.
In the past, the BJP supported the Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK government, securing parliamentary support at the Centre in return. After her demise, BJP interference deepened factionalism within the AIADMK, eventually prompting the party to exit the NDA and attempt a revival on its own terms.
A New Bet on Actor Vijay
Following its fallout with the AIADMK, the BJP has shifted strategy, now placing its hopes on actor Vijay and his newly launched TVK. Banking on his mass appeal, the BJP is reportedly courting Vijay, with speculation that legal relief in corruption and tax-related cases could be part of the bargain.
Vijay’s frequent visits to Delhi have fuelled such speculation. However, history offers cautionary tales. Superstar Rajinikanth never translated his immense popularity into electoral politics, while actor Vijayakant’s DMDK failed to challenge the Dravidian duopoly in any meaningful way.
Claims circulating on social media that Vijay commands the support of over 25 per cent of voters remain unsubstantiated. There is little grassroots evidence to suggest that TVK can form a government with the backing of smaller parties like the AMMK and the BJP. Some observers believe Vijay may meet the same political fate as election strategist Prashant Kishor in Bihar.
In the final analysis, the DMK appears to enjoy a clear advantage going into the 2026 Assembly elections. A fragmented opposition, a weakened AIADMK, and widespread apprehension about the BJP’s Hindutva agenda overtaking the Dravidian ethos may well hand the ruling party a relatively smooth path to victory.
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Syed Ali Mujtaba is a Chennai-based journalist. He can be contacted at syedalimujtaba2007@gmail.co
