Overall, the data from the 2024 Lok Sabha elections indicates a consistent pattern. In constituencies where Prime Minister Modi delivered hate speeches, the BJP either faced defeats or won with much narrower margins.
NEW DELHI — A notable pattern has emerged regarding the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) performance in areas where Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered hate speeches during the Lok Sabha election campaigning in 2024. In the constituencies where such speeches were made, the BJP either lost or secured victory by a narrow margin.
In at least eight constituencies where Modi resorted to hate speeches, his party – the BJP – was trounced.
In Banswara, Modi made his first hate speech of the campaign, leading to a loss for the BJP. Raj Kumar Roat of the Bharat Adivasi Party won with a substantial margin of 247,054 votes over Mahendrajeetsingh Malviya of the BJP.
This margin of victory is higher than what Modi could manage in his Varanasi seat, where he won by 1,52,513 votes, the lowest-ever victory margin for any prime minister.
A newly floated party, BAP made its political debut in 2023 during the Rajasthan assembly elections. It split from Gujarat-based Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) in 2017. Roat is BAP’s MLA from Chaurasi, who was elected in 2023. The BJP candidate, Mahendrajeetsingh Malviya, was a Congress MLA from Bagidora seat. He resigned from the position of Congress MLA and joined the BJP to contest the Lok Sabha elections from Banswara. BAP won both the bye polls in Bagidora and the Lok Sabha elections in Banswara.
During a rally on April 21, PM Modi had alleged that the Congress manifesto says they will calculate the gold belonging to mothers and sisters, obtain information about it, and then distribute that property to ‘infiltrators’ and ‘those who have more children’, in a clear reference to Muslims. He also falsely claimed that former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had said that Muslims have the first right to the country’s resources and assets.
Over 20,000 individuals, including various activists, had collectively penned two separate letters to the Election Commission of India, seeking action against the PM for his comments describing them as disturbing and an offence to the sentiments of millions of Constitution-respecting Indian citizens. The Congress had also complained to the ECI on April 22, accusing Modi of using religion and religious symbols to fuel animosity between communities.
Similarly, in Ghosi, Modi’s statement that Hindus would become “second-class citizens” if the INDIA bloc came to power resulted in a defeat for the BJP, with Rajeev Rai of the Samajwadi Party winning by 1,62,943 votes over Dr Arvind Rajbhar of the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party.
Addressing three back-to-back rallies in East UP on May 26, Modi, up against the ‘PDA’ strategy of the Samajwadi Party, primarily focused on pitting OBCs (Other Backward Classes) and Dalits against Muslims. PDA stands for pichda (backwards), Dalit, and alpsankhyak (minority).
“These INDI alliance people want to turn the majority community (Hindus) in India into second-class citizens,” Modi said in Ghosi.
In Nandurbar, Modi’s divisive comment that Muslims would not get reservations from Dalits, Adivasis, and OBCs “as long as I am alive” also led to a BJP loss. Advocate Gowaal Kagada Padavi of the Indian National Congress defeated Dr Heena Vijaykumar Gavit of the BJP by a margin of 159,120 votes.
In Tonk-Sawai Madhopur, Modi’s accusation that Congress planned to “distribute” SC-ST reservations to Muslims resulted in Harish Chandra Meena of the Indian National Congress winning by 64,949 votes over BJP’s Sukhbir Singh Jaunapuria.
Defending his recent ‘hate speech’ in which he said that “Congress wants to snatch women’s Mangalsutra”, Modi, while addressing a public rally in Rajasthan’s Tonk on April 23 said that he had put the truth before the country. He reiterated that the grand old party is hatching a deep conspiracy to snatch people’s property and distribute it to “special people”.
He further stated that his 90-second speech created panic in the entire Congress and INDIA Bloc.
The trend continued in Mathurapur (West Bengal), where Modi’s claim that Muslims were obtaining fake OBC certificates led to a defeat for the BJP. Bapi Haldar of the All India Trinamool Congress won by a margin of 201,057 votes over Ashok Purkait of the BJP.
In Pataliputra (Bihar), Modi’s remark about the INDIA Bloc performing “mujra” for its Muslim vote bank saw Misha Bharti of the Rashtriya Janata Dal winning by 85,174 votes over BJP’s Ram Kripal Yadav.
In Barabanki, Modi’s assertion that Congress would “bulldoze” the Ram Temple resulted in Tanuj Punia of the Indian National Congress winning by a significant margin of 215,704 votes over BJP’s Rajrani Rawat.
In Dumka (Jharkhand), Modi’s promotion of anti-Muslim conspiracy theories like Love Jihad and Population Jihad led to a BJP loss, with Nalin Soren of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha winning by 22,527 votes over Sita Murmu of the BJP.
However, there were at least three instances where the BJP managed victories despite Modi’s controversial remarks. However, the victory margins were slender or reduced from previous elections in the same constituencies.
In Aligarh, following Modi’s infamous Mangalsutra comment, the BJP won with Satish Kumar Gautam securing a slim margin of 15,647 votes over Bijendra Singh of the Samajwadi Party.
In Jammu and Kashmir’s Udhampur, Modi’s ‘mutton-eating’ during Sawan remark saw BJP’s Dr. Jitendra Singh winning by 124,373 votes over Ch. Lal Singh of the Indian National Congress. The BJP had won this seat in 2019 with a margin of 357,252 votes.
In 2019, Dr Jitendra Singh of the BJP secured 724,311, winning over his nearest rival, Vikramaditya Singh of the Congress who secured 367,059 votes. Lal Singh who contested the election on his Dogra Swabhiman Sanghathan Party polled only 19,049 votes.
In Khargone, Modi’s comment about “Vote Jihad” resulted in Gajendra Singh Patel of the BJP winning by 135,018 votes over Porlal Batha Kharte of the Indian National Congress. The victory margin of the BJP decreased from 202,510 in 2019.
Gajendra Umrao Singh Patel polled 819,863 votes in the recently concluded election as opposed to 773,550 votes in 2019. Kharte who polled 571040 votes in 2019, secured 684,845 in 2024, reducing BJP’s overall lead from 202,510 to 135,018.
Overall, the data from the 2024 Lok Sabha elections indicates a consistent pattern. In constituencies where Prime Minister Modi delivered hate speeches, the BJP either faced defeats or won with much narrower margins.
WHERE BJP LOST
- Banswara:
Hate Speech: Modi made his first hateful speech.
Result: BJP Lost.
Winner: Raj Kumar Roat, Bharat Adivasi Party (820,831 votes, +247,054 margin)
Loser: Mahendrajeetsingh Malviya, BJP (573,777 votes, -247,054 margin)
- Ghosi:
Hate Speech: Modi claimed Hindus would become “second-class citizens” if the INDIA bloc came to power.
Result: BJP Lost.
Winner: Rajeev Rai, Samajwadi Party (503,131 votes, +162,943 margin)
Loser: Dr. Arvind Rajbhar, Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (340,188 votes, -162,943 margin)
- Nandurbar:
Hate Speech: Modi stated Muslims wouldn’t get reservations from Dalits, Adivasis, and OBCs “as long as I am alive.”
Result: BJP Lost.
Winner: Adv. Gowaal Kagada Padavi, Indian National Congress (745,998 votes, +159,120 margin)
Loser: Dr. Heena Vijaykumar Gavit, BJP (586,878 votes, -159,120 margin)
- Tonk-Sawai Madhopur:
Hate Speech: Modi accused Congress of planning to “distribute” SC-ST reservations to Muslims.
Result: BJP Lost.
Winner: Harish Chandra Meena, Indian National Congress (623,763 votes, +64,949 margin)
Loser: Sukhbir Singh Jaunapuria, BJP (558,814 votes, -64,949 margin)
- Mathurapur (West Bengal):
Hate Speech: Modi claimed Muslims were obtaining fake OBC certificates.
Result: BJP Lost.
Winner: Bapi Haldar, All India Trinamool Congress (755,731 votes, +201,057 margin)
Loser: Ashok Purkait, BJP (554,674 votes, -201,057 margin)
- Pataliputra (Bihar):
Hate Speech: Modi accused the INDIA bloc of performing “mujra” for its Muslim vote bank.
Result: BJP Lost.
Winner: Misha Bharti, Rashtriya Janata Dal (613,283 votes, +85,174 margin)
Loser: Ram Kripal Yadav, BJP (528,109 votes, -85,174 margin)
- Barabanki:
Hate Speech: Modi claimed Congress would “bulldoze” the Ram Temple.
Result: BJP Lost.
Winner: Tanuj Punia, Indian National Congress (719,927 votes, +215,704 margin)
Loser: Rajrani Rawat, BJP (504,223 votes, -215,704 margin)
- Dumka (Jharkhand):
Hate Speech: Modi legitimized anti-Muslim conspiracy theories like Love Jihad and Population Jihad.
Result: BJP Lost.
Winner: Nalin Soren, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (547,370 votes, +22,527 margin)
Loser: Sita Murmu, BJP (524,843 votes, -22,527 margin)
WHERE BJP WON
- Aligarh:
Hate Speech: Modi made the now-infamous Mangalsutra remark.
Result: BJP Won.
Winner: Satish Kumar Gautam, BJP (501,834 votes, +15,647 margin)
Loser: Bijendra Singh, Samajwadi Party (486,187 votes, -15,647 margin)
- Udhampur:
Hate Speech: Modi’s ‘mutton-eating’ during Sawan remark, indicating a ‘Mughal mentality’.
Result: BJP Won.
Winner: Dr. Jitendra Singh, BJP (571,076 votes, +124,373 margin)
Loser: Ch. Lal Singh, Indian National Congress (446,703 votes, -124,373 margin)
- Khargone:
Hate Speech: Modi’s comment about “Vote Jihad”.
Result: BJP Won.
Winner: Gajendra Singh Patel, BJP (819,863 votes, +135,018 margin)
Loser: Porlal Batha Kharte, Indian National Congress (684,845 votes, -135,018 margin)
C. Kashmir Times
