WASHINGTON – Joe Biden is rapidly nearing a critical juncture in his presidency as he prepares to enter the thick of the 2024 campaign season with hopes of securing a second term in office.
But his handling of Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza has spread discontent among core parts of his traditional Democratic base that are increasingly apprehensive about his looming candidacy at a time when the American economy continues to drag on public opinion.
That has created a wide opening for a Republican challenger to pounce.
In a sign of the discontent, a poll released last weekend showed presumptive Republican nominee ex-US President Donald Trump beating Biden in a head-on contest.
The Wall Street Journal poll found Biden trailing Trump by 43% to 47%, with pervasive displeasure recorded amongst Democratic groups.
The poll found just 37% of Americans approve of Biden’s job performance, which is on par with that of other surveys, including data from polling firm Gallup, which tracked the same figure on Nov. 28 in what marked a record-low for the president.
Unlike The Wall Street Journal, the Gallup poll specifically asked respondents about their views on Biden’s handling of foreign affairs generally, and what it called “the situation in the Middle East between the Israelis and the Palestinians.” On both points, respondents were just 32% favorable, voicing the same level of dourness for the president’s economic policies in what could be an ill omen for Biden.
Among Democrats, just 60% approved of his handling of the war in Gaza, the worst rating of all topics asked by Gallup. Biden’s approval among Democrats more generally recovered modestly after nose-diving in the wake of the Gaza war, recovering to 83% after plummeting 11 points to 75% in October.
Biden’s team sent out a message to supporters over the weekend, seeking to pull in donations by emphasizing that “December is a crucial month for our campaign.”
“Everyone will be watching: the press, our opponents, and even supporters will be wanting to see the strength of our movement,” it said as it sought to rally critical funding.
Shifting approach
Since Oct. 7, Biden has positioned himself as an unwavering ally of Israel, ready to supply it with whatever it needs for its war on the besieged Palestinian territory.
The president and his top officials simultaneously sought to discount the emerging death toll in Gaza during the war’s early days.
That posture shifted moderately as the war continued and civilian casualties mounted, with Biden administration officials eventually acknowledging “many thousands” had been killed in Gaza, calling each death a “tragedy.”
Most recently, Biden has called Israel’s bombing “indiscriminate,” but maintained he would not “walk away from providing Israel what they need to defend themselves and to finish the job against Hamas.”
That has apparently included continued diplomatic support at the UN, including vetoing multiple resolutions demanding an immediate cease-fire.
Traditional Democratic bases – women, people of color, Muslims, and young voting-age Americans – have all voiced strong discontent with Israel’s operations in Gaza in multiple surveys.
Gallup Editor-in-Chief Mohamed Younis said in an interview with Anadolu that the Biden team has likely been adjusting its messaging in response to the numbers.
“President Biden’s own approach, language, posturing on the issue, has shifted quite a bit from the very beginning of the conflict. And I think part of that is him and his team really reading the polls very closely, ours and others, on how Democrats are not as united, certainly as Republicans are today, on sort of what is the right thing to do when it comes to this conflict,” he said.
Gallup in March released annual data that showed Democratic sympathies had shifted more to Palestinians than Israel – 49% to 38% – for the first time since questioning on the issue began over two decades ago.
It further found that sympathies for Palestinians within the wider American public hit an all-time high of 31%, as the percentage of Americans supporting Israel hit the lowest level since 2005.
It is unclear how those numbers have been affected by the war, but the conflict has resulted in widespread mass demonstrations, including among many of Biden’s historic bases, for over two months.
Those protests show no sign of abating any time soon as mass casualties, displacement and hunger in Gaza continue to dominate the headlines.
The longer the war drags on at the levels of violence that has resulted in nearly 18,800 Palestinians being killed to date, two-thirds of them women and children, the more tenuous the situation becomes for Biden.
More than seven in 10 Americans said they are following the issue closely, according to Gallup’s Nov. 30 data.
Younis said that represents a “relatively high” figure for a foreign affairs issue in America.
“Americans tend to be much more focused on domestic issues … local issues where they live, even more than national issues,” he said.
“So that 72%, you know, was an eye-opener for me personally, and many people on our team. As the violence continues to be at the rate that we’ve seen it, I think that focus will remain.”
A decisive factor?
While discontent is simmering broadly among some key constituencies, nowhere has it been more focused than among Arab and Muslim voters.
Advocates have raised alarm that key Democratic voting blocs are unlikely to support the president come next year.
Leaders in key battleground states – Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – have even launched an #AbandonBiden campaign, pledging not to support the president due to his refusal to call for a cease-fire.
While it is uncertain whether Biden could win some of those states to begin with, in particular Florida, in others he will need to rally every vote possible to ensure a repeat of 2020.
In Georgia, for example, Biden bested Trump by under 12,000 votes. The gap was even narrower in Arizona.
In Michigan, home to one of the largest Muslim American populations in the US with over 241,000 there, Biden won by just over 154,000 votes.
Edward Ahmed Mitchell, the national deputy executive director of the Council on American-Islamic Relations, said there is “intense disappointment” among Muslim Americans regarding Biden’s “policy on Israel and Palestine, especially the ongoing slaughter in Gaza.”
“It is very clear to everyone that (Israeli Prime Minister) Benjamin Netanyahu is not accidentally killing civilians while targeting a terrorist group. He is deliberately targeting civilians,” said the civil rights attorney.
“He said, and other leaders indicated, they were planning to embark on a campaign of mass violence. Despite that, the president has supported and aided and enabled the violence that the Netanyahu government has perpetrated against Palestinians, which has made the American Muslim community incredibly disappointed.”
It remains unclear, however, if Gaza will be the deciding factor for Biden’s Democratic detractors more generally, and Younis struck a note of caution about believing that will be the case come November.
“Are people paying attention? Absolutely. Are attitudes shifting among some subgroups of the population here in the United States? Absolutely. But is that going to be a decisive factor come November when people vote for president? I would pause with caution on that conclusion,” said the Gallup official.
“History has really taught us that Americans can pay attention to a lot of things. But the one thing that really is, I like to say, is not just king, it’s king, queen and bishop, is the national economic situation.” -AA
