While nine of the 15 Muslim candidates fielded by the Congress in Karnataka registered victory, none of the 22 fielded by the JD (S) did. In 2018, of the seven winning Muslim candidates, five were from Congress and two from the JD (S)
Team Clarion
NEW DELHI — All indications are that Muslim voters in the recent Karnataka Assembly elections wholeheartedly and unitedly supported the Congress in the state. This consolidation of the Muslim vote augurs well for the secular or pseudo-secular parties having the potential of standing up to the polarisation and divisive policies of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
It may not sound odd that for the first time since 2008, no Janata Dal (S) Muslim candidate has registered a victory even though the party of former prime minister Deve Gowda has a strong presence in Old Mysuru region, which has about 11% Muslim population. This points to an interesting sub-strand of the Karnataka election results, a fortification of Muslim votes in the region in favour of the Congress.
Muslims, undoubtedly, have consolidated their votes in Congress’ favour, especially in the Old Mysuru region at the cost of Janata Dal (Secular), which has always banked on VM (Vokkaliga-Muslim) factor to win big in the region. The JD (S) was the only party to openly speak against the hijab ban and halal issue.
“In the Old Mysuru region, along with the Vokkaliga votes, Muslim votes have moved to the Congress from the JD (S). Even though the latter had taken a strong stand against hijab issue hoping to get more Muslim votes, the vote bank has rallied behind the Congress fearing JD(S) might join hands with the BJP,” political analyst A. Narayana was quoted by Hindustan Times as saying.
The Muslim electorate was also disillusioned with the JD (S) because many of its legislators crossed over to the BJP allowing the Saffron party to form the government in 2019 thus helping it unabashedly spread its Hindutva ideology.
While nine of the 15 Muslim candidates fielded by the Congress in Karnataka registered victory, none of the 22 fielded by the JD (S) won. In 2018, of the seven winning Muslim candidates, five were from Congress and two from the JD (S). In that election, 25 Muslim candidates were allotted tickets by the two parties, 17 by the Congress and 8 by the JD (S). The BJP did not field any Muslim candidates this time around as it did in 2018 and 2023.
According to the Census 2011, the latest available, Muslims account for almost 13% of the state’s population and Muslim votes are a crucial factor in about 65 of the 224 constituencies. An analysis of the election data showed that Congress secured almost half of the 65 seats where Muslims matter.
In coastal Karnataka, the BJP won 12 of the 19 seats as compared to 16 in 2018. The Congress won five seats against three in 2018 and the JD (S) won one. Of the 15 Congress Muslim candidates, only three were fielded from coastal Karnataka.
The outgoing Basavaraj Bommai government introduced several measures seen as targeting the Muslim community. In 2022, the government banned the hijab in the pre-university colleges across the state, leading to protests in coastal Karnataka districts such as Udupi, which the BJP swept by winning all five seats.
But Karnataka Education Minister and BJP leader B.C. Nagesh, who had enforced the hijab ban and had urged an economic boycott of Muslims, lost from the Tiptur assembly constituency in Tumkur district. And Kaneez Fathima, the lone Congress woman candidate, who had spearheaded the anti-hijab ban protests, won her Gulbarga North constituency defeating her nearest BJP rival Chandrakant B. Patil, a Lingayat youth leader. Interestingly, there were nine Muslim candidates in the fray against Fathima. Her victory is another telling proof of the consolidation of Muslim votes in favour of the resurgent Congress.
In 2022, the BJP government passed laws against religious conversion and transportation of cattle in the state. Some BJP leaders also called for a ban on halal meat in the state.
The BJP also had to pay a heavy price for its decision to scrap 4% reservation for Muslims under the other backward classes category. The Bommai government’s decision was seen as another onslaught on the minority population even though the chief minister justified it saying reservation was not allowed on religious lines under the Constitution and that the community could get the benefit of reservation under the 10% quota for economically weaker sections. The matter was challenged in the Supreme Court where the state made a tactical retreat and announced that it would not implement the decision.
The Congress grasped the opportunity with open hands and promised to restore the quota. This promise also went well with the Muslim electorate.
The Congress manifesto also promised to ban organisations such as the Popular Front of India and Bajrang Dal. PFI has already been banned by the Indian government, and the party’s invocation of the RSS-affiliate Bajrang Dal did not go down well with the BJP. Prime Minister Narendra Modi lashed out at the promise and eyeing to consolidate the Hindu vote bank, he called on members of the majority community to chant ‘Jai Bajrangbali’ while casting votes.
But Congress remained unswayed. “Before making the manifesto promise on Bajrang Dal, we calculated that the Hindu consolidation will not happen for the BJP. The reason was our surveys showed that BJP’s polarisation plank had peaked in 2018 assembly elections. So, Bajrang Dal was a gamble which has worked for us,” a senior Congress leader was quoted as saying.
What is crystal clear is the fact that Kannadigas have refused to be swayed by the polarisation politics of the BJP. An overwhelming majority of the people of the state seem to have rejected the Hindutva planks of hijab ban, love jihad and other similar issues targeting the state’s 78.93 lakh Muslims constituting (12.92 per cent) of the total 6.11 crore population.
Karnataka also has 11.43 lakhs (1.87 per cent) Christian population. This segment of society and the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes also felt threatened by the forces bent upon thrusting Hindutva ideology down their throats.
It will take time to get the exact data to gauge the Muslim consolidation in favour of the Congress, the India Today-Axis My India exit polls suggested that there would be a 10% increase in the Muslim votes for the Congress and results suggest a similar trend. Axis had projected 122-140 seats for the Congress. The Congress won 136.