IT has been about 50 days only since the Iran-Israel war ended. But barely after a month-and-a-half, the possibility of reignition of a new war has increased once again.
The situation is tense again after the 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel in June. The US and Israel are threatening to attack Iran’s nuclear programme, while Tehran has announced to continue uranium enrichment.
Meanwhile, threats of war and counter-statements are coming from both sides, but a senior army officer close to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has claimed that the US is unable to attack Iran due to its economic and military limitations.
Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said in an interview with Lebanon’s Al-Mayadeen channel that, “If the US feels that it cannot defeat Iran through war and wants to negotiate for a real solution, then we will respond positively. But if the talks are an excuse to prepare for war, then it is useless for us.” On the one hand, Larijani’s statement shows the possibility of a diplomatic solution, on the other it also raises questions about America’s intentions.
On their part, France, the United Kingdom and Germany have warned Iran that if it does not resume nuclear talks and produce concrete results by the end of August, UN sanctions may be reimposed. After the military attacks launched by Israel in June and the US bombing of three Iranian nuclear installations on the ninth day of the war, the Trump administration had claimed that Iran’s nuclear programme was over. However, Iran has repeatedly said that its nuclear programme is for civilian use only and it has no intention of making a bomb.
But in reality, at present, amid the stalling of nuclear talks and fears of military tensions, both sides are engaged in war preparations. Iran has insisted on strengthening its military preparations, while Israel and the US are constantly threatening military action.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei warned at a press conference in Tehran on Monday (August 18), that Israel’s expansionism, if left unchecked, could drag the Middles East region into “endless wars.
Baghaei sounded the alarm while slamming Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent claims about realising the so-called “Greater Israel” vision, which Netanyahu described as including occupied Palestinian territories and parts of neighbouring Arab states.
This “Greater Israel” idea has laid bare Israel’s domineering and expansionist nature, Baghaei said. He also said that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) deputy director general’s visit to Iran earlier this month aimed to establish guidelines for Iran-IAEA interactions after Israeli and US attacks on Iran in June. He added that more talks between Iran and the UN nuclear watchdog are due to take place in the coming days.
Meanwhile, the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, the top most military body in Iran, controlling both the Iranian Army and the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), has sternly warned the United States and the Zionist regime against any renewed aggression against the Islamic republic, stressing that such folly will be met with a crushing response much stronger than that of the 12-day imposed war in June.
The top Iranian military body released a statement on Saturday (August 16) as it commemorated the release anniversary of the prisoners of war from Iraq.
The statement was followed by a warning by top military adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader on Sunday (August 17), that another war with Israel or the United States was likely, dismissing the current ceasefire as just another phase in the conflict.
“We are not in a ceasefire; we are in a stage of war. No protocol, regulation, or agreement has been written between us and the US or Israel,” said IRGC General Yahya Rahim Safavi. “I think another war may happen, and after that, there may be no more wars.”
Safavi’s comments are the latest in a series of combative remarks from military leaders on both sides, with Israel’s army chief vowing readiness for further strikes and Iran’s General Staff warning of “a far stronger response” to any future attacks by US or Israel.
As tensions heat-up a Middle Eastern expert says that he believes that an all-out war could begin again by the end of August. There’s a catch, however — Israel won’t be able to sustain such a military venture without the US fully backing its efforts, according to Trita Parsi, the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
While both Israel and Iran keep their weapons stores “under wraps,” Parsi said that Western intelligence assessments indicated that Iran “still has 1,600 missiles that can reach Israel.”
Israel, on the other hand, was already “running low on interceptors,” including Arrow 3. “The exact levels are unknown, but much indicates that Israel could not have continued the war much longer (unless the US entered it fully),” Parsi told the Express US.
Nevertheless, Israel seems to be relying on US aid, he said. In an article for Foreign Policy, which was also sent to the Express US, Parsi wrote, “Israel is likely to launch another war with Iran before December — perhaps even as early as late August.”
Iran is already anticipating another Israeli attack against it, Parsi said, and is “preparing.” In the first 12-day war, he said the Middle Eastern country “played the long game, pacing its missile attacks as it anticipated a prolonged conflict.”
That means two things — the first is that Iran has enough missiles to fight a war of attrition, and the second is that it’s likely to change its strategy in the case of a second war.
“In the next round, however, Iran is likely to strike decisively from the outset, aiming to dispel any notion that it can be subdued under Israeli military dominance,” Parsi wrote.
“As a result, the coming war will likely be far bloodier than the first,” he added. “And that poses a serious issue for the US: Should the country join the conflict?”
The expert went on to say that Israel’s war back in June, was “never solely about Iran’s nuclear programme.” Instead, it was about “shifting the balance of power in the Middle East.”
“For more than two decades, Israel has pushed the United States to take military action against Iran to weaken it and restore a favourable regional balance — one that Israel cannot achieve on its own,” Parsi wrote.
“In this context, Israel’s strikes had three main objectives beyond weakening Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. It sought to draw the United States into direct military conflict with Iran, to decapitate the Iranian regime, and to turn the country into the next Syria or Lebanon — countries that Israel can bomb with impunity and without any US involvement,” he continued.
Only one of those goals was realised, however, Parsi said. The US was drawn into the conflict, but Iran’s regime was not incapacitated. And neither was its nuclear programme, he added.
Overall, the chances of another round of war between Iran and Israel seems rather slim, as Israel is currently focussed on getting Gaza free of Gazans, to annex more unauthorised territory, an action against which no strong international condemnation or counter has come so far.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is preoccupied with his tariff wars and political and economic situation back home and seems least interested to start another war, which may ultimately prove to be his nemesis.
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Asad Mirza is a New Delhi-based senior commentator on national, international, defence and strategic affairs, environmental issues, an interfaith practitioner, and a media consultant. The views expressed here are the author’s personal.
