Murtaza Shibli
IT is still too early to celebrate the active cessation of hostilities, but there is relief across the region, more so to the people living in the border areas of both sides.
Emotions aside, India did not gain anything from the confrontation. It had to agree to a ceasefire after Pakistan responded to earlier missile strikes with its own barrage. Regardless of the spin that Prime Minister Modi’s PR managers would attempt, he has become quite vulnerable and could be pilloried by the opposition that has been unable to undo the Modi magic.
Regardless of how this engagement would be sold to the hyper-charged Modi bhakts, there is little chance that India would be able to repeat any bombing raids or missile attacks inside Pakistan. This confrontation had provided a big opportunity for India to attack AJK (or PoK – take your pick) but India couldn’t despite unceasing public announcements on the issue.
That Pakistan was not only able to stick to its stated position to respond to Indian attacks does seem to have come as a surprise. Pakistan was even able to score a few brownie points by claiming to down some ace flying hardware has restored the post-Kargil parity between the competing nuclear powers.
In the future, we could see more insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir. The psychological impact of the August 2019 abrogation of the Articles 370 and 35A wherein India had firmly established its narrative and hold within the Kashmiri population could receive a serious dent. Pakistan could gain some public support again and perhaps China’s role could attain salience that could further galvanise what Pakistan often characterises as the ‘ Kashmir cause’.
In such a long list of hopeless scenarios, the best way forward is to engage in well meaning dialogue between India and Pakistan, India and China, and an internal dialogue with the Omar Abdullah government and New Delhi.
The Modi government should restore the statehood, and work on creating a meaningful and robust mechanism to allow Kashmiri aspirations to take a confident shape within its territorial geography. I believe Musharraf’s four point formula should be revisited with a view to implement it.
What is clear is that despite the bravado and fantasies advanced and articulated by the shameless and theatrical journalists across Indian newsrooms, none of their fantasies came to fruition. That no side was able to undo the other may come as a surprise to most of their gullible viewers, and may cause many heartbreaks. But ‘popular public demand’ as enunciated by shameless and TRP hungry television channels should not be allowed to hijack agendas of national security and interest.
Pakistan and India both must appreciate their limitations in war, diplomacy and public support on the ground, and must work jointly to avoid any future escalation. It is time to permanently remove the causes that create a war like situation. The Pahalgam attack has proved once again the volatility and fragility of the ‘cold peace’ on the ground that is obtained through continued coercion and control. Such an arrangement may sound invincible on paper but a single Pahalgam-like incident punctures it away.
The Modi government must also abandon its official policy of vilifying and securitising Muslims. The amount of hate and violence against Muslims has infected the whole country and all its spheres from politics to public Square. This policy may win a couple of more elections but is proving one of the biggest impediment to the future progress of the country.
India must de-escalate both internally and externally. There is no need for India, Pakistan and China to get involved in bilateral or trilateral conflicts that shall cost dearly for one fourth of the humanity.
C. CC.Org
