Bangladesh-India Relationship on the Rocks: Is Modi’s Foreign Policy Failing?

Date:

Sadi Mohamod Sadi

WITH the ouster of Sheikh Hasina’s 16-year regime last August, the relations between Bangladesh and India have hit a rough patch. The Awami League government of Sheikh Hasina has had strong historical ties with New Delhi, and its ouster has given a significant blow to India’s regional ambitions.

During its autocratic rule, the Awami League suppressed dissent vehemently. Many Bangladeshis believe that India, which has been a long-standing supporter of the regime, had helped in sustaining the Awami League rule. For many years anti-Indian sentiment among Bangladeshis has been on an upward trajectory.

The anti-discrimination movement against the quota system in government jobs and 16 years of autocratic rule have now ended giving Bangladeshis their voice back. Now they are using their voice to stand up against New Delhi’s long-standing hegemony in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh had always maintained good relations with India as the latter played a great role in its war of independence in 1971. But despite acknowledging the historic Indian role in the Liberation War, a great chunk of Bangladeshis has developed a negative outlook on India. It is mainly due to India’s undue interference in Bangladesh’s internal politics and long-standing discrimination in treaties between the countries. For example, Bangladesh and India share 54 transboundary rivers and India has dams in around 30 of them. But only one river has a water-sharing treaty: the Ganges water treaty signed in 1996 and set to end in 2026.

Bangladesh being an upper riparian country depends on India for water, but India has never given Bangladesh its fair share of water. The Teesta dispute is one such case where India deprived Bangladesh of water. The Teesta River has an annual runoff of 60 billion cubic meters and 90% of the water flows during the monsoon season between June to September. The Teesta Basin is home to about 30 million people of whom 71% are located in Bangladesh and around 9.5 million directly and 21 million people indirectly are dependent on the Teesta for their livelihoods. But in 1996, India built the Gazal Doba barrage in West Bengal and withdrew water every dry season thus prompting water shortages that led to drought in the northern parts of Bangladesh. In 2010 Bangladesh and India drafted an agreement which came to fruition later that year. The agreement stipulated that India and Bangladesh each would get 40% of the actual flow available at Gazal Doba Barrage in West Bengal, while 20% of the actual flow available at Gazal Doba would be reserved as environmental flow. But India never adhered to the agreement.

India has given shelter to many Awami League leaders including Sheikh Hasina. Bangladesh has requested New Delhi to extradite Hasina but New Delhi has refused to do so. This has created a strong anti-Indian sentiment among Bangladeshis. Most of the Bangladeshis want India to return Hasina to Bangladesh so that she may be charged for her crimes.

Apart from this India-Bangladesh people-to-people connection is at an all-time low. This is due to the fact that after Hasina’s ouster, a vast section of Indian media spread misinformation and disinformation about Bangladesh’s interim government. Also, the Indian media fed misinformation on the persecution of Hindu minorities in Bangladesh. Of course, there have been incidents of violence against some Hindus but they are largely leaders of the ousted Awami League regime. There were so many incidences of Muslims protecting Hindu temples, but these cases were never highlighted. This sort of disinformation and misinformation is very insulting to the Bangladeshi people and is also affecting the cordial people-to-people relations Bangladeshis have with general Indians.

Due to the role played by Indian media, many Indians are beginning to antagonise Bangladesh and we see that in recent times the rate of Bangladeshis travelling to India has declined which is also affecting Indian businesses in Kolkata who are dependent on Bangladeshis for their business and also due to visa restrictions many Bangladeshis unable to go to India for medical purposes searching for alternatives. This has led to Bangladeshis go to Southeast Asian countries like Thailand where treatment costs are.

If India does not fix its relations with Bangladesh then there is a chance that Bangladesh will cozy up to China. Already that is the case as China has been heavily investing in Bangladesh under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China has also pledged to build hospitals in Bangladesh so that the latter can overcome its dependence on India when it comes to healthcare.

One thing that is of discomfort for India is Bangladesh’s renewed engagement with Pakistan. Dhaka has been pursuing close relations with Islamabad. The two countries have agreed to expand bilateral relations. Bangladesh’s proximity with Pakistan can be of great nuisance for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Bangladesh and India are neighbours and it is not in the best interest of any of the countries to have hostile relations with each other. Modi’s foreign policy with his neighbours is showing signs of failure. Currently, New Delhi does not have good relations with any of its neighbors. But despite this, Dhaka was its long-standing ally in the region. If Modi loses Dhaka’s confidence than it would be a huge blow to New Delhi’s regional ambitions, leading India to lose its regional supremacy to China. So New Delhi and Dhaka must work together to gain good relations in this changing geopolitical scenario. New Delhi must put aside the differences and work towards an amicable solution to all the issues. Also, New Delhi must extradite Hasina to Bangladesh so that she might face the consequences of her actions.

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Sadi Mohamod Sadi is studying International Relations at Jahangirnagar University, Bangladesh. The views expressed here are the writer’s own and Clarion India does not necessarily subscribe to them. He can be contacted at sadi007Mohammod@gmail.com

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