NEW DELHI — Bucking the trend of releasing Exit poll numbers for Bengal Assembly elections, Axis My India – a renowned polling agency- on Thursday said that it has chosen not to release any seat or voting projections for the state because of the unprecedented silence of voters and their refusal to share inclination towards any outfit.
Pradeep Gupta, the Director and MD of Axis My India, stated that his team observed an exceptionally high non-response rate from the voters, with approximately 70 per cent of the voters declining to participate in the survey, and hence, this left him with “very little choice” to present reliable and survey-based data on the electoral outcome.
“The degree of hesitancy has been factored into the sampling models; a refusal rate of this magnitude exceeds historical norms and introduces a high degree of non-response bias,” he further said, shedding light on the reasons behind withholding the poll estimates.
The noted psephologist, in a press note, stated, “Such elevated non-response levels constrain the reliability of vote-share estimation. In a competitive electoral context, the risk of skew arising from selective disclosure and silent voter behaviour becomes disproportionally high, thereby limiting the robustness of any derived projections.”
According to him, the Axis My India deputed a team of 80 surveyors to conduct surveys across the state and gather the opinions of over 13,000 respondents to gauge the public mood on the ground. He also ventured into the field to assess ground conditions and validate survey processes.
After failing to garner it on the ground, largely due to “voters’ silence,” the polling agency has deliberately chosen not to release the exit poll estimates for the state.
Meanwhile, as many as 8 pollsters have released their seat and voting projections for the Bengal elections, which witnessed a spirited campaign by the BJP and TMC, followed by a high-voltage contest.
Out of 8, 4 exit polls have predicted the uprooting of the Mamata regime, 2 have forecast a neck-and-neck BJP vs TMC battle, while 2 others believe that TMC will get a comfortable mandate, facilitating its return to power for a record fourth term. — IANS
