ACCORDING to the latest available Global Peace Index (GPI), prepared by the Institute for Economics and Peace last year, the number of internationalised, interstate conflicts increased by 175% since 2010. A total of 78 countries were involved in a war beyond borders in 2023. The briefing for this report stated bluntly that the prospect of a conflict has never been higher.
Another highly disturbing trend the report highlights is that while the number of conflicts is higher than at any period since World War II, global investment in conflict prevention has reduced significantly from already low levels. Expenditure on peace-keeping and peace-building at $47 billion was only 0.5% of the military spending in PPP terms in 2024. This represents a reduction in real terms of 26% from $64 billion in 2008. This is extremely unfortunate and reflects one of the biggest distortions of the spending priorities of the world, which appears to be at a complete loss of understanding its own real needs.
Since 2008, relationships with neighbouring countries have worsened for 59 countries while improving for only 19. This indicates that the possibilities of future conflicts are also increasing.
The latest available GPI report also tells us that the successful resolution of conflicts is lower than at any other point in the last five decades. Comparing the 1970s with the 2010s, this report tells us that conflicts that ended with peace agreements fell from the already low of 23% to an alarming low of 4% during this period, while conflicts that ended in decisive victories one way or the other were reduced from 49% to 9% during the same period. This reflects the sad and very worrying situation that conflicts tend increasingly now to continue over much longer periods. It is the same for both hot or active conflicts and the period of frozen conflicts.
While the GPI does not provide us with a comprehensive understanding of war and peace, some of its findings, as summarised above, are nevertheless very useful for highlighting some highly worrying trends of our deeply troubled world. These trends in turn reflect a wider trend that the forces of peace have been weakened and the forces of war have been turned stronger in the first quarter of the 21st century at the global level. The second quarter of this century has started on an even worse note.
The weakness of the forces of peace is not just reflected in the shockingly low financial allocations for peace work. From individual to family to community and to national to international levels, there is shocking neglect of one of the most urgent needs of humanity today of creating a society and a world based on peace and non-violence.
Not only is the visibility of all forces of peace highly inadequate, but the presence of these forces, which are completely guided by truth, is scarcely seen in our highly troubled world. However, it would be more correct to say that such voices exist quite a lot among common people, but are not allowed to be heard in significant and visible ways (several surveys indicate ordinary people being much more committed to peace, but being overruled by decision-makers).
What we see more frequently is opportunistic or even unethical use of peace talks as highly unjust wars are launched in the name of peace and justice, or highly arbitrary and often violent regime-change operations are taken up in the name of democracy in the run-up to the increasing likelihood of a highly dystopian future. Even some of the actions publicised as peace efforts are, in fact, being supported by the forces of war and injustice to ultimately push their own narrow and destructive agenda. Hence, some peace research downplays the role of the biggest forces of war and violence, while diverting attention elsewhere. The more structural and deeply rooted causes of violence, wars and injustice thus get marginalised, while these must be at the centre of any sincere and honest efforts of peace.
These highly disturbing, disrupting and distressing trends should be checked, and this is only possible based on a sincere and honest agenda of peace based on truth. While all efforts, small and big, in this direction are most welcome, it should be emphasised that ultimately there are no short-cuts and the huge task and responsibility of mobilising millions and millions of people of the world on the path of peace and non-violence with justice has to be taken up. While this will take time, some eminent persons with sincere and honest commitment to peace must come forward to stop some of the most fearful and dangerous wars and conflicts.
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Bharat Dogra writes extensively on environment, development and welfare issues. The views expressed here are the writer’s own, and Clarion India does not necessarily subscribe to them. He can be reached at:bharatdogra1956@gmail.com
