John Dayal
THE assembly elections in Assam and Kerala, for which polling was held on April 9, have a political meaning for the Congress and its leader, Rahul Gandhi, far beyond the borders of the states.
This was a party that once defined modern India. It has struggled for over a decade. These elections may not be the final word, but they are important checkpoints.
The polls in Assam and Kerala saw impressive turnouts — Assam hit a record 85.5%, while Kerala recorded around 78%.
The results on May 4 may well decide if the Congress will remain a viable party strong enough to claim continued leadership of the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance), a coalition of opposition parties formed in 2023, and pose a realistic challenge to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the next general election in 2029.
At present, the Congress on its own governs only Karnataka and Telangana states in the south, and the tiny Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh, and is a junior partner of a regional party, DMK (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam or Progressive Federation of Dravidians), in the Tamil Nadu government.
It needs more state governments under its belt, not only for the boost in morale but also to recoup resources that are needed to participate in the very expensive Indian election process.
Government data shows that more than three-quarters of all election financing from corporate donations and public contributions is being mopped up by Modi’s BJP.
Assam in the northeast, bordering Bangladesh, was for decades a Congress stronghold, but has now shown how the BJP has expanded into the region through identity politics and development claims.
Kerala offers Congress a chance to return to power in another southern state and prove it can run a modern, welfare-focused government.
The Congress entered these polls with some fresh energy from its improved 2024 Lok Sabha performance of 99 seats. It had won 52 seats in 2019.
A good showing in either state could lift Congress’ morale, bring in allies, and give it real governing experience. Big losses would deepen doubts about its future as a national challenger.
A Congress victory in Kerala is more or less foretold, though the Election Commission has banned post-voting media polls and conjectures.
The United Democratic Front (UDF), with the Congress contesting around 93-95 seats, is slightly ahead of the Left Democratic Front (LDF), with the victory mark at 70 seats.
Rahul Gandhi, the sitting member of parliament from Kerala’s Wayanad seat, vacated it for his sister Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra, whose presence has helped heal internal divisions just in time for the polls
It is also visible in the people’s tiredness with the LDF government of Chief Minister Piniyari Vijayan, who failed to build on an unexpected second consecutive term in office — a rarity in a state where the LDF and the Congress-led UDF have ruled alternatively with clockwork regularity.
The LDF won decisively in the 2016 and 2021 assembly elections. Congress, as the main force in the UDF, draws support from Christians, Muslims, and traditional voters. But it has suffered from factionalism and the LDF’s strong welfare programs, including during the Covid years.
In the parliamentary elections, the UDF swept 18 of 20 seats in Kerala — a big boost. The 2025 local body elections further helped the UDF, which won majorities in most urban and rural bodies.
The BJP’s early flourish petered out as the Christian groups it was wooing to find a toehold in central Kerala floundered amid the backlash to the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA) amendments suddenly moved in parliament without notice.
The proposed changes are seen as a conspiracy by Modi’s government to loot Church institutions such as hospitals and schools built with foreign donations over the last half a century
The BJP has worked hard to also break the mostly Hindu Ezhava community, wooing its top leaders assiduously to expand the party’s footprint on a more permanent basis and eat into the Marxist strongholds.
A UDF victory in Kerala would mark Congress’s biggest state gain since Karnataka in 2023. It would give the party a southern success story to showcase — a model of secular politics, high literacy, and social welfare that contrasts with centralising trends from Delhi.
This could energise workers, draw new talent and funds, and prove that Rahul Gandhi’s long marches and alliance-building efforts are yielding results.
In Assam, the Congress has seen the worst of the rot that has set in over the decades, destroying its very core of strong local leaders, many of whom defected to the BJP, where they were given positions of power.
The BJP continues to target the Muslim population in the prodder state, working on the fears of both the Hindu Assamese speaking population and the various tribal groups, which include those professing Christianity.
Most pre-poll surveys favor the BJP-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) for a third straight win under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Projections range from 80-100 seats for the NDA against 25-40 for the Congress-led alliance in the state.
Sarma’s high popularity seems to be built around his anti-Muslim persona and a sharp invective that has repeatedly unsettled civil society. Attempts by human rights activists to file criminal cases against the chief minister have failed to get any support from the judiciary.
A clear BJP win would strengthen its hold in the northeast region. A narrower victory for the Congress or even a better vote share could still signal a slow recovery for the opposition.
In the south, a UDF return to power would limit the BJP’s southern expansion (despite its 2024 foothold) and offer a living example of development without heavy reliance on cultural majoritarianism.
Nationally, this feeds into bigger debates on federalism: whether states should enjoy real autonomy or follow a more uniform “one nation” approach.
High turnout in both states, especially among women and youth, suggests voters are actively weighing change against continuity. Minorities, tribals, and aspirational middle classes will play big roles.
Controlling states gives parties leverage in bodies like the GST or Goods and Services Tax Council and more voice against federal policies. Wins provide Congress with real governing laboratories to test ideas. Losses keep it weaker in resource battles and dependent on Delhi’s goodwill.
Other simultaneously held polls in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Puducherry will add context. A Kerala win for the Congress, combined with the survival of its allies elsewhere, could build a stronger southern and eastern opposition front.
Continued BJP success in Assam alongside setbacks for others might further isolate Congress.
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