Rajan Kshirsagar
THE much-repeated phrase ‘farmers’ interests are non-negotiable,’ by government spokespersons following the February 9, 2026, US–India Interim Trade Agreement, conceals a far more troubling reality. While the deal has been celebrated as a diplomatic victory between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump, a granular examination reveals that the agricultural concessions extracted by the United States have been deliberately concentrated on politically less-organised sectors—particularly soybean, cotton, maize, and grain producer farmers and people.
Let us be clear from the outset: this is not a trade deal. This is a surrender. And the ones paying the price are not the ministers signing papers in Washington, but the farmers and people of India who feed this nation.
The ₹500 Billion Mirage – What They Don’t Want You to Know
When the deal was announced, the government’s propaganda machine went into overdrive. Godi Media shouted: “India commits to buy ₹500 billion from America!” But within 24 hours, the White House quietly revised its official fact sheet. The original text said India “committed” to purchasing over ₹500 billion of US products. The revised version softened this dramatically: India “intends” to make these purchases.
Do you understand the difference? “Commits” means a binding obligation. “Intends” means nothing but a hope, a wish, a maybe. According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), even with maximal procurement of Boeing aircraft and LNG, the realistic ceiling is ₹150-200 billion over five years, not ₹500 billion.
So why include this figure at all? For the White House, it’s a rhetorical victory. For India, it’s a non-binding placeholder that will nevertheless be used to pressure us into buying American goods whether we need them or not.
The Asymmetric Warfare – Why You Cannot Compete
The government’s ministers go on television and claim that Indian farmers can compete with Americans. Let us look at the actual numbers.
The US federal farm safety net spends approximately ₹21.7 billion annually on direct subsidies to American farmers.
Now look at your situation. India’s agricultural support is spread across 120 million farmers. The per-farmer buffer is an order of magnitude smaller and often theoretical rather than realised in cash.
For soybean, the MSP for 2025–26 is ₹5,328 per quintal. Yet average mandi prices in Madhya Pradesh were already near ₹4,000 before the trade announcement. After the deal, prices fell another 8-11 per cent. Today, farmers are getting as low as ₹3,600 per quintal—a gap of nearly ₹1,700 versus MSP, where the comprehensive cost of production calculated by CACP is ₹4,638.
At average yields of around ten quintals per hectare, this translates into a gross revenue shortfall of roughly ₹17,000 per hectare. For the typical smallholder cultivating two hectares, the loss approaches ₹35,000 per season. In regions where the median annual net farm income ranges between ₹90,000 and ₹1.2 lakh, that is the removal of a quarter to a third of yearly earnings.
Soybean – The Immediate Casualty
India is the world’s fifth-largest soybean producer, with 13.1 million tonnes cultivated on 12.4 million hectares. Madhya Pradesh accounts for 48% of the production, Maharashtra 32%. Approximately 40 lakh farmer families depend on this crop.
Under this deal, India has agreed to eliminate or reduce tariffs on US soybean oil and dried distillers’ grains (DDGS). The Compound Livestock Feed Manufacturers Association (CLFMA) estimates that 2.5 million tonnes of soybean meal could be displaced over three years. This directly reduces domestic soybean crush demand by 3.1 million tonnes of soybeans—equivalent to 25% of India’s entire soybean crop.
Yet Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis continues to claim that “farmers are well protected” and that “the market price has also stabilised.” If farmers are so well protected, why are mandi prices already ₹1,700 below MSP?
The Union government’s abolition of the 11% import duty on cotton on 19th August 2025 has deliberately sunk domestic prices, causing raw cotton to sell for as low as ₹6,000 per quintal—far below the already inadequate MSP. While the government claims this move benefits the industry, it is a direct assault on farmers, as the C2+50% formula mandates an MSP of ₹10,075 per quintal for 2025-26, meaning farmers face a staggering deficit of ₹2,365 per quintal even on the official rate. Based on the 154.41 lakh metric tonnes of raw cotton produced, the total loss inflicted upon cotton farmers by this betrayal exceeds ₹36,518 crore, with CCI’s procurement alone accounting for a ₹12,416 crore loss on 52.5 lakh metric tonnes.
This is not merely an economic blow but a death sentence for India’s peasantry, as the cotton belt is already infamous for widespread suicides—Vidarbha alone witnesses nine farmer suicides daily, and nationally, the toll is 31 every single day. The surge in cotton imports to 50 lakh bales following the duty removal has collapsed prices, yet the government hypocritically negotiates a US trade deal to reduce reciprocal tariffs, which might boost exports by 15-20% but does nothing to undo the damage. Minister Piyush Goyal’s handling of this situation is the most insensitive and cruel betrayal imaginable; he has absolutely no moral authority to continue in his position.
Let us look deeper.
The Seed Patent Bomb – What They Are Hiding
The joint statement includes commitments to “negotiate a robust set of bilateral digital trade rules.” While seemingly unrelated to cotton, these provisions open the door to the long-standing US demand for patent protection on GM traits.
Here is what you need to understand. India’s Patent Act, 1970, Section 3(j) explicitly prohibits patents on “plants and animals in whole or any part thereof, seeds, varieties, and species.” This single provision has protected Indian farmers from the seed traps that destroyed farmers in other countries.
The US Trade Representative listed India’s seed patent regime as a “priority foreign country practice” in its 2025 report. Through this deal, they are demanding patent protection for genes and traits, overriding Section 3(j), and stronger enforcement against seed saving.
Today, as a cotton farmer, you pay a “trait fee” of about ₹49 per packet of Bt cotton seeds. This fee is capped by the Indian government. If the US gets its way, trait fees could rise to $15-20 per acre, which is the American level. For a typical cotton farmer with 2 acres, this adds ₹4,000-5,000 in costs every single season. Think about that. An extra ₹5,000 every season. Just for the right to plant seeds.
Devastation of Sugarcane Producers & Sugar Industry
The India-US trade deal’s provision for duty-free maize imports for ethanol is a direct assault on India’s 55 million sugarcane farmers. While officials claim “sensitive sectors” are protected, this creates a backdoor for US ethanol feedstock, functionally equivalent to duty-free ethanol but with all value addition and jobs shifting to America.
The stakes are immense. The sugar industry is a ₹1.3 lakh crore ecosystem supporting 55 million farmers and 500,000 workers—a population equivalent to South Korea’s. Uttar Pradesh alone accounts for 49% of production, making sugarcane pricing an electoral third rail, as seen in the October 2025 SAP hike ahead of state polls.
The mechanism is simple and devastating: grain-based ethanol now commands 72% of the 2025-26 blending market, upending the programme’s original purpose of stabilising cane farmer incomes. Every litre of ethanol from imported maize displaces domestic sugarcane, threatening the ₹40,000 crore investment mills made based on policy continuity. With maize ethanol demand projected to require 27 million tonnes by 2030, duty-free US imports will capture this growing market, leaving domestic farmers stranded.
This cripples the Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) system. When mills lose ethanol revenue, their capacity to pay the legally mandated FRP collapses, triggering payment delays, state bailouts, and political pressure to keep prices unsustainable. The 2025-26 allocation has already triggered industry warnings of “cash flow constraints” and delayed farmer payments.
The deal is a strategic blunder that validates the US-Australia WTO challenge, which claims India’s 90%+ sugarcane support is a “market distortion.” By accepting maize imports, India concedes this premise without resolving the dispute, while strengthening future cases against its farm support systems.
This isn’t just about sugarcane. It signals the government will prioritise trade deals over farmer protection. If the ethanol programme’s core social contract—stable prices for strategic resources—can be abrogated, no agricultural support mechanism is safe. The agreement’s fundamental contradiction is stark: it undermines “aatmanirbharta” (self-reliance) by swapping dependence on Middle Eastern oil for dependence on American corn, while systematically dismantling the livelihoods of 55 million farmers.
Sacrificing India’s Apple, Walnut, and Almond Farmers
The government’s defence of the Indo-US trade deal has been shockingly detached from reality. By opening duty-free access to heavily subsidised American produce while maintaining tariff barriers against Indian exports, this agreement creates an uneven playing field that Himalayan farmers cannot possibly survive.
The Scale of What’s at Stake
India produces approximately 2.5 lakh metric tonnes of apples annually—about 2 per cent of global production. Jammu and Kashmir alone accounts for 75 per cent of this yield, generating annual revenue exceeding Rs 12,000 crore across over 2 lakh hectares of cultivation. For hundreds of thousands of families, apples are not merely a crop, but a primary livelihood.
Himachal Pradesh’s apple industry, while smaller, remains equally vital to that state’s economy. With an annual turnover of approximately Rs 4,500 crore, it supports between 2.5 to 6 lakh families directly and indirectly.
Beyond apples, Jammu and Kashmir’s dry fruit sector faces equally severe threats. The region produces 98 per cent of India’s apricot crop—approximately 86,000 metric tonnes in 2025 across 3.11 lakh hectares. Almonds and walnuts, while production data is less systematically tracked, represent similarly critical components of the regional economy.
Even before the deal’s formal implementation, its announcement has triggered market responses confirming the worst fears of farmer organisations. American apple and nut producers—backed by corporate giants like Walmart and Cargill—now gain preferential access to India’s growing premium fruit market.
The targeting of these specific agricultural sectors raises uncomfortable questions about regional equity and political voice. The 15 lakh families depending on apple, walnut, and almond cultivation in India’s hill regions face a future of price collapse, income destruction, and livelihood displacement. The investments they have made in modern orchards and storage facilities undertaken in good faith, based on the government’s encouragement will be rendered worthless. The ecological and economic vulnerabilities of mountain communities will be amplified.
This deal represents one of the most consequential policy failures in modern Indian agricultural history.
The BJP Govt’s Lies Exposed
Let us put the Narendra Modi government’s statements side by side with the facts.
BJP ministers claim: “No item where any Indian farmer will be hurt will be included.” — The Truth: Soybean, maize, and cotton are all threatened. Goldman Sachs confirmed tariffs will be slashed.
BJP ministers claim: “Farmers are well protected.” — The Truth: Soybean prices are already ₹1,700 below MSP. Cotton imports have surged. Farmers in Punjab, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Telangana, and all 11 states are sinking into debt.
BJP ministers claim: “No genetically modified items will be imported.” — The Truth: NITI Aayog itself proposes a “workaround” for GM soybean processing in coastal zones.
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has claimed that agricultural products made in “good respectable quantities” have been kept out of the agreement, listing items like meat, poultry, dairy, rice, and wheat as having “zero concession.” Yet the joint fact sheet explicitly mentions that India will lower barriers on a “wide range” of US food and agricultural products, including soybean oil and DDGS.
Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has claimed that “not a single product has been included in this agreement that would cause even the slightest harm to Indian farmers.” The All India Kisan Sabha has called this a “total surrender.”
Hidden Agenda of Non-Tariff Barriers
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitarman’s department has sent a Demi Official letter to the Kerala Government on 9th January 2026 asking to end Rs.630/q as bonus being given to paddy farmers. Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh also provide bonus to paddy farmers. Eliminating non-tariff barriers on import of agricultural products to devastate petty producers and ruin the food security of India is part of the US strategy. The farmers as well as the entire people of India cannot afford such reforms.
The Union government’s trade deal negotiations with the United States conceal a blatant assault on India’s agricultural sovereignty, disguised under the innocuous phrase “address non-tariff barriers.” This is nothing but a euphemism for forcing Indian farmers to swallow poisonous American food imports while dismantling the very regulatory framework that protects 150 million farming families. This will attack on Public Distribution System and Endangers the food security of the country. This will also be carried forward to the dissolution of MSP & the Procurment system which the US already claims as “Market Distrortion Mechanism”
Loan Waiver Shall be Legally Eliminated
In the name of banking reforms and bank capitalisation huge inroads will be made by FDI in different sectors, including public sector banking. This will result in an increased role of co-lending partners, Nonbanking finance companies along with Changed Disaster Mangegment Act 2025 which shall create an ecosystem to end farmers’ loan waiver schemes. an increased NBFC presence may reduce the political possibility of a loan waiver. No legal mandate for loan waiver; farmers will be faced with aggressive recovery from a profit-focused institution.
The hidden agenda is crystal clear: by agreeing to “harmonise” with Codex Alimentarius standards, the government is preparing to sacrifice Indian food safety on the altar of American corporate profits. Codex standards for aflatoxins and pesticide residues are dangerously lower than India’s existing protective measures, meaning contaminated peanuts and commodities that are illegal in India today will flood our markets tomorrow. The same negotiations that have already collapsed cotton prices through duty removal now threaten to poison our food supply while destroying domestic prices. Further, many such measures shall lead to dismantle the regulatory framework which shall lead to flood banned food & Milk products to India.
The genetic colonisation of Indian agriculture is the next target. Since Bt brinjal in 2009, India’s GEAC has wisely refused to approve GM food crops, recognising the catastrophic ecological and health consequences. But the US trade negotiators, with Minister Piyush Goyal as their willing accomplice, are using this deal to force open the doors for GM crops—sacrificing India’s biosafety for Washington’s agribusiness lobby.
The Digital Colonisation
Most sinister is the digital colonisation hiding behind “robust digital trade rules.” This is a corporate takeover blueprint: US platforms like Amazon and Bayer’s digital farming arm will gain unrestricted access to Indian farmer data, completely bypassing India’s data protection laws. The very data that should remain a national treasure—our farmers’ crop patterns, soil health, production details—will be handed over to the same multinational corporations that are already destroying farmers through unfair trade practices. The government that claims to protect “data sovereignty” is auctioning it off to the highest bidder.
Minister Goyal is orchestrating the largest sellout of Indian agriculture since colonialism trading food safety, genetic sovereignty, and farmer data for worthless tariff concessions while American corporations prepare to plunder every aspect of our farming system. He has absolutely no moral authority to negotiate away the lives and livelihoods of 150 million farming families. This is not trade diplomacy; this is treason against the Indian peasantry.
The Pulse Pivot – Proof That Resistance Works
Here is something that should make farmers both angry and hopeful.
When the US first released its fact sheet about the deal, it included “certain pulses” in the list of agricultural tariff reductions. Within 24 hours, pulses were quietly removed. Why? Because resistance from farming communities started immediately. India imports 15% of its pulse consumption, and farmers in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and in all 8 major states—5 crore pulse-producing farmers in India who grow pigeon pea and chickpea—pushed back hard. The pulse exclusion is critical evidence that when farming communities organise effectively, they can shield themselves.
The Rush to Surrender – Why the Haste?
On February 20, 2026, the US Supreme Court delivered a 6-3 decision declaring that the Trump administration had exceeded its legal authority to impose global tariffs. The court held that such legislative powers rest exclusively with the US Congress.
If the Modi government had waited just 18 more days, India would have negotiated from a position of strength. Instead, they rushed to sign on February 2, announcing the deal with great fanfare.
In Parliament, the Opposition asked the question that should trouble every Indian: “Why was it so urgent for Prime Minister Modi to ensure that President Trump announced the India-US trade deal? If the Prime Minister had waited 18 more days, Indian farmers could have avoided this crisis.”
The Sovereignty Question – What Was Surrendered?
The most shameful surrender came on oil. Under this deal, India has committed to purchasing billions worth of US energy over five years. President Trump claimed that India agreed to stop buying Russian oil. He issued an executive order stating that the US will “monitor” India’s oil imports, and could reimpose 25% tariffs on Indian exports if purchases from Russia continue.
An American president is saying he will monitor what India buys. And if India buys oil from Russia—a country that has been our friend for decades—America will punish us?
By December 2025, India’s oil imports from Russia had already fallen to the lowest since 2023. Meanwhile, oil imports from the US rose sharply. The Petroleum Ministry even asked refiners to provide weekly data on imports from Russia and the US, stating that the information was required by the Prime Minister’s Office.
Why does the PMO need weekly data on oil imports? Because America is watching. Because the prime minister agreed to be monitored.
The Currency of Exchange
The 2026 US–India Interim Trade Deal is not a rupture but an acceleration of existing trends. India has gradually lowered agricultural protection since the 1990s; this deal accelerates that process in selected commodities. It tries to reimpose the agenda of old farm laws in the interest of corporates.
The deal reveals an uncomfortable truth: in trade negotiations, agriculture remains the currency of exchange for industrial and geopolitical access. Soybean farmers in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are paying for India’s access to US defence technology. Cotton farmers will pay for textiles export markets through higher seed costs and collapsing cotton prices.
The struggle of farmers against the three black farm laws has proved that when farmers woke up and challenged the establishment, they can change it through a sustained movement. The history of the freedom struggle in which, after the formation of the All India Kisan Sabha, the farmers challenged the colonial rulers and landlords combine and marched towards freedom. They made huge sacrifices and sustained the struggle. Now, again, the time has come that the degenerated imperialist system is again trying to snatch the rights of farmers. The farmers, who have always been a vibrant force against imperialism, can rise again. Farmers will not bear the cost of India’s geopolitical alignment towards the imperialist camp.
The All India Kisan Sabha has already geared up to conduct a robust campaign against the farmers’ betrayal in the India-US trade deal. Sanyukt Kisan Morcha has also called on farmers’ organisations to unite on this issue. On the 12th of February, SKM & CTU jointly conducted protests and agitations against all such policies and the India-US Trade Deal. On February 12, 2026, farmers protested across the country. Sanyukt Kisan Morcha has called for nationwide village meetings and an open letter to the President, demanding the sack of Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and issuing directives to the Prime Minister not to sign the final India-US trade deal.
Yet the government remains silent. They hide the document. They avoid Parliament. They refuse to answer questions.
The seeds of concession planted in February 2026 will yield their harvest in the coming seasons. Without immediate policy intervention and mass resistance, that harvest will be one of farm distress, plant closures, and diminished rural livelihoods across India’s fields and farms.
But friends, remember this: the government may have surrendered. But farmers have not. And farmers will not.
The borders of Delhi are still there. The tractors are still parked. The flags are still flying. The farmers are still waiting. When the time comes, when the protests begin, when the voice of the people becomes too loud to ignore—we will be there.
Not for the crony capitalists. Not for the communal agenda. For ourselves. For our families. For our future.
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Rajan Kshirsagar is the President of the All India Kisan Sabha. The views expressed here are personal.
