A CRITICAL appraisal of Israel’s long-term sustainability reveals a paradox: while it boasts high economic and military resilience, it faces unprecedented, compounding existential threats arising from internal political dysfunction and extremely hostile, deteriorating neighbourly relations. The “life span” of Israel as a state is increasingly threatened by these two factors working in tandem.
The most critical threat to Israel’s longevity is not external, but internal. Its internal political dysfunction and social fractures have alarmingly heightened. Israel has experienced a 180% increase in affective polarisation since 2009, making it one of the most splintered countries in the world. More than ever before, and with an alarming intensity, democratic erosion and legal conflict, efforts to reform the judiciary have caused a severe constitutional crisis, turning the judiciary into a battleground between a secular-liberal camp and a religious-nationalist camp.
Tribalisation of Society
Tribalisation of Israeli society is increasingly fragmented into four distinct “tribes”: secular, national-religious, ultra-Orthodox (Haredi), and Arabs, who live in separate social circles, educational systems, and political realities. This divide is costing Israel by tearing into its hitherto harmonious social fabric. The concept of the fragmented Israeli society remains a central framework for analysing Israeli social dynamics.
This tribalisation describes a shift from a society dominated by a single, cohesive Zionist ethos to one where four separate groups, each with its own educational system, media, and worldview, are growing to hold nearly equal sizes. The four groups generally attend different schools, with minimal interaction between them, limiting shared experiences from a young age. These groups often live in separate neighbourhoods or towns, leading to a lack of shared social space and mutual ignorance.
The political goals of these groups are often in direct opposition, making coalition-building difficult and exacerbating tensions. The secular group, once the undisputed majority, has seen its relative share decrease, while the ultra-Orthodox and Arab sectors have seen higher birth rates, accelerating the “new Israeli order”. This tribalisation has left its imprints on Israeli society, wherein obvious social tensions and polarisation have emerged. The divide has led to increased hostility and, in some cases, violence in mixed cities, as evidenced during times of conflict.
It threatens the“Common Israeli Ness” and ends up creating a political gridlock among them. The lack of a common language or shared fate makes it difficult to maintain a unified national identity. The deep disagreements over the nature of the state, whether it should be a liberal democracy or a more religious, halakhic state. There are disputes over issues like military service (Haredi conscription), public transportation on the Sabbath, and judicial authority. While the “Four Tribes” framework highlights the deep divides, it is also used as a basis for promoting “common Israeli Ness” and seeking new, collaborative models for the future of the state.
One of Israel’s mounting political eruptions is The Haredi/Demographic Question. It centres on the intense debate over drafting Ultra-Orthodox men into the military, ending their traditional exemptions to Torah study, and reducing state-funded stipends. As the community grows, secular Israelis increasingly demand equal civic burden, while Haredim fear military service will secularise them and threaten their identity.
The influence of far-right, ultranationalist politicians in coalition governments has increased, causing severe damage to democratic norms and elevating the risk of internal violent civil unrest. Extremism and civil unrest, hitherto rare, are now getting to be commonplace.
Ring of Fire
Israel’s regional security, which previously relied on a mix of deterrence and covert diplomacy, has shifted from an offensive to a defensive posture after 2023. Iran and its allies – Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis – have successfully surrounded Israel, tested its air defences and brought war to multiple, simultaneous fronts. This facet is commonly referred to as the “Ring of Fire” and Iranian Proxies.
Israel is no longer the power it was – confident and arrogant. Much of this has to do with the emergence of a multipolar profile that is led by China and Russia. Post the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, and the US attack on Iran, political dynamics have substantially transformed. Israel is holding back the US, although in its search for a brave profile, it announces it will fight Iran, even if the US pulls back. The hard truth is that Israel can no longer threaten the region without consequences that it will have to pay for. The fatigue on the streets of the US for support to Israel has turned into militant anti-Israel rage. Iran is assertive and will not succumb to what is supposedly the US’s military superiority.
The “management” of the conflict, particularly the occupation of the West Bank and blockade of Gaza, has also failed, resulting in a prolonged, draining, and costly conflict. The death toll in Gaza has created a generational crisis and massive, long-term international isolation. This could also be attributed to the failure of the Palestinian Strategy.
While treaties with Egypt and Jordan hold, they are under severe strain, with public antipathy in these nations toward Israel at an all-time high, creating pressure on their leaders. Israel’s neglect of these relationships undermines its own security.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) and International Court of Justice (ICJ) proceedings, along with rising global anti-war sentiment, have significantly damaged Israel’s reputation, making it increasingly reliant on a volatile US political landscape.
As nearly half of 18-year-olds do not serve in the military (including ultra-Orthodox and Arab citizens), the IDF is no longer the unifying“melting pot” institution it once was, thus reducing cohesion.
The current leadership’s strategy of defying international law and neglecting neighbourly relations, while simultaneously pushing for internal “judicial overhaul,” creates a pincer movement that could, in the long term, make the state unviable or force a transformation into something that is neither fully Jewish nor fully democratic. This, by itself, reinforces the “Danger of Disconnection”.
Without a fundamental restructuring of its internal social contract and a new approach to regional diplomacy, the current trajectory points toward increased isolation, internal conflict, and a lower quality of life.
Israel as a Colonial Project
Zionism fits the definition of a settler-colonial movement similar to European colonial projects in North America or Australia, which required the displacement or marginalisation of the indigenous Arab population.
Critics argue that the establishment of Israel in 1948 (the Nakba or “catastrophe” for Palestinians) and the ongoing occupation of the West Bank are part of a continuous process of replacing the native population and taking control of the land and its resources.
Data from 2024 has shown a high rate of emigration from Israel, which some observers frame as a “reverse Jewish exodus”. The debate remains intense, with one side focusing on the “colonial” methods used to establish and maintain the state, and the other focusing on the “indigenous” and historical connection of the Jewish people to the land.
Based on recent assessments by some retired Israeli military officials, particularly in the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, attacks, there are severe warnings regarding the long-term sustainability of the state of Israel, with some suggesting a potential collapse within 1–2 decades if current trends continue. Israel is led by a leadership that “prioritises political survival over the public interest,” describing it as “myopic and directionless.”
Ilan Pappé and Gideon Levy are two among the prominent Israeli critics of Zionism and the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories. While they come from different backgrounds – Pappé is a New Historian (now based in the UK), having left Israel under serious threats to his life, and Levy is a respected and award-winning journalist for Haaretz—they share a similar analysis regarding the sustainability of Israel’s current trajectory. Both argue that the status quo is morally indefensible and destined to collapse.
______________
Ranjan Solomon is a writer, researcher and activist based in Goa. He has worked in social movements since he was 19 years of age. The views expressed here are the author’s own and Clarion India does not necessarily share or subscribe to them. He can be contacted at ranjan.solomon@gmail.com
