The report places India fourth among countries facing a serious risk of mass killing, raising alarm over growing hate, mob violence, and attacks on minorities
NEW DELHI — A new report by the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum (USHMM) has issued a serious warning about India, saying the country faces a high risk of large-scale violence against civilians in the near future, with Indian Muslims likely to be the worst affected.
The findings are part of the museum’s Early Warning Project, released in December 2025, which studies the chances of mass killing across 168 countries. India has been ranked fourth on the global list, after Myanmar, Chad and Sudan.
The report says there is a 75 per cent chance that India could see deliberate, large-scale violence against civilians before the end of 2026.
Researchers define mass killing as a situation where an armed group kills at least 1,000 unarmed civilians within a year, based on identity such as religion, ethnicity or political belief.
While countries like Myanmar and Sudan are already facing open conflict, the report flags India as a new danger zone, where violence is not yet at that level but warning signs are clearly visible.
The report comes amid growing concern over attacks on minorities, especially Muslims, in several Indian states. Over recent years, incidents of mob lynching, hate speeches, attacks during religious festivals, and damage to Muslim homes and places of worship have increased.
Human rights groups have repeatedly warned that hate campaigns by Hindu nationalist groups have created fear among Muslims.
A Delhi-based rights activist said, “Indian Muslims are living under constant pressure. Mob violence, police silence and political backing for hate have made daily life unsafe for many families.”
Another Muslim community leader from Uttar Pradesh said, “We are not asking for special treatment. We are asking for safety, dignity and equal protection under the law.”
USHMM researchers, working with experts from Dartmouth College, studied decades of data to identify common signs seen in countries before mass violence begins. They compared those patterns with present-day conditions.
The model looks at more than 30 factors, including population size, economic stress, political freedom, hate speech, armed activity and social tension.
The report asks a direct question: Which countries today look most like those that suffered mass killings one or two years before violence began?
India’s position high on the list, the report says, should be taken seriously.
A USHMM researcher noted, “This is not a prediction. It is a warning. History shows that violence rarely happens without signs. When warnings are ignored, lives are lost.”
Although the report does not name specific communities, experts say Indian Muslims face the highest risk due to repeated targeting in recent years.
From lynching over food habits to hate calls during elections, Muslims have often been painted as enemies, leading to social isolation and fear.
A senior journalist based in Hyderabad said, “What makes this report serious is that it matches what Muslims in India have been saying for years. The danger is not sudden. It has been building slowly.”
The researchers have clearly stated that their work should not be seen as fate or certainty. The model identifies risky conditions but does not say violence must happen.
The data used is publicly available up to 2024, meaning incidents from 2025 are not fully included. The report also admits that situations in countries where access for observers is limited may not be fully captured.
Still, the museum stresses that early warnings exist so that action can be taken in time.
The report urges governments, international bodies and civil society to closely watch countries listed in the top 30, including India.
It asks whether authorities are paying enough attention to organised attacks on civilians and whether upcoming events such as elections, protests or political unrest could make things worse.
Researchers also point to the need to strengthen social forces that can resist violence, such as independent media, courts, community groups and human rights organisations.
A human rights lawyer in Mumbai said, “This is a moment for India to look inward. Ignoring such warnings will only deepen fear among minorities and damage the country’s moral standing.”
USHMM concludes that mass violence is not unavoidable. The report reminds readers that the Holocaust itself could have been stopped if early signs had been taken seriously. As one line in the report states, “Paying attention early can save lives.”
