Over decades, democratically elected officials were removed, executed, or assassinated; and civil wars initiated. Even now, the lingering instability across West Asia and Africa unmistakably bears the marks of US influence
Dr Tasleem Ahmad Rehmani
IN complete disregard to the established international law, the United States launched its military operation last week against the sovereign state of Venezuela that culminated in the apprehension of Nicolás Maduro, the democratically elected president, along with his spouse. Aerial bombardments targeted key infrastructure across Caracas and its adjacent areas, resulting in extensive destruction. Within hours of the assault, the death toll reached a minimum of 40 individuals, with hundreds more sustaining injuries. At the same time, substantial portions of urban neighbourhoods were obliterated, leaving only debris and compromised structural elements.
Maduro, his spouse, and four additional individuals now face allegations in a Manhattan court regarding their involvement in the supply of narcotics to the United States and the orchestration of violence over a span of 25 years. Concurrently, beginning on January 2, President Donald Trump issued a series of confrontational declarations, asserting that the United States maintains the prerogative to conduct strikes globally at its discretion and that Venezuela, along with its substantial oil reserves, will henceforth remain under American oversight. Furthermore, the nation’s vice president, who has been appointed as an interim leader, has been cautioned regarding severe repercussions should she fail to adhere to the demands set forth by the United States. The abruptness and audacity of this intervention have created significant unease within the international community.
The Secretary-General of the United Nations, along with governments from various continents, has condemned the actions in the strongest possible terms. Several Latin American nations, including Cuba, Mexico, Colombia, Panama, and Brazil, have called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, which is currently in session. Europe has responded with its characteristic ambivalence, criticising American overreach while also expressing a willingness to denounce President Maduro, a stance that ultimately aligns with Washington’s interests. In contrast, China and Russia have reacted with undeniable fury. Meanwhile, India, although cautious, faces the threat of increased tariffs from the US president.
No Surprise
History provides little reason for astonishment. The patterns of American foreign policy have long included the overthrow of governments, the arrest or elimination of leaders, and the reshaping of nations through military intervention. Instances such as Panama (1989), Afghanistan (2001), Iraq (2003), the ousting of Hamas’s democratically elected government (2006), Libya (2011), Ukraine (2022), and Iran (2024) all follow a familiar narrative. Democratically elected officials were removed, executed, or assassinated; societies were torn apart; and civil wars initiated. Even now, the lingering instability across West Asia and Africa unmistakably bears the marks of American influence.
A pertinent question is whether recent interventions are motivated by a desire for imperial dominance or by genuine concerns about economic survival. The United States currently holds the position of the world’s largest economy, valued at approximately $30 trillion, followed closely by China at around $19 trillion, with Germany and India farther behind. While these figures may suggest economic strength, they also reveal significant underlying challenges. The US is grappling with a national debt approaching $38 trillion and annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of its financial future. Furthermore, nearly two-thirds of Americans face difficulties managing monthly expenses, primarily due to escalating healthcare costs and rising rents.
Approximately 35 per cent of the population lives below the poverty threshold, while youth unemployment rates approach 34 per cent. Approximately 80 per cent of Americans are employed on a salaried basis, with an average monthly income of roughly $4,500—an amount that is alarmingly inadequate in one of the world’s most expensive economies. Against this backdrop of internal socioeconomic instability, the United States’ pervasive military engagements abroad warrant critical assessment. Since 1980, the projection of military power has been driven by a singular, ongoing objective: to secure strategic resources essential for stabilising a declining economic system. Central to this strategy is maintaining the US dollar as the preeminent global currency. To safeguard this monetary hegemony, the US actively cultivates compliant governments and, when feasible, resorts to sanctions or military intervention against those that oppose its interests.
Afghanistan has endured two decades of conflict, leaving its landscapes and communities deeply scarred. In Iraq, the invasion based on the unsubstantiated claim of weapons of mass destruction led to the tragic execution of Saddam Hussein and resulted in the country’s valuable oil wealth falling into foreign hands, leaving the economy grappling for recovery. In Palestine, the 2006 undermining of the democratically elected Hamas government highlighted the complexities of geopolitical stability in West Asia. Since 2007, the 2.3 million residents of Gaza have faced life under siege, their reality resembling that of the world’s largest open-air prison. Meanwhile, across Africa, from Sudan and Somalia to Mali, Nigeria, and Congo, conflict often erupts in resource-rich regions, disproportionately affecting communities in predominantly Muslim countries. Each of these situations reflects profound human suffering and the struggles of people caught in cycles of violence and economic hardship.
Economic Stranglehold
Venezuela occupies a significant position in the geopolitical landscape due to its vast natural resources, particularly its status as the world’s largest holder of proven oil reserves. However, the country has been severely affected by a series of US sanctions, which have drastically limited its ability to export oil, allowing it to sell only a fraction, approximately 1% of its production capacity. This economic stranglehold has contributed to widespread impoverishment and social unrest.
Since the 1990s, the United States has invested billions into covert and overt strategies aimed at undermining the Venezuelan government, yet these activities did not achieve their intended outcomes. Geographically, Venezuela’s strategic location along the Caribbean, coupled with its population of approximately 30 million and its proximity of roughly 4,500 kilometres from the US border, further amplifies its significance.
The Venezuelan government, dominated by socialist ideologies, has pursued foreign policies that align with nations like Palestine and Iran, fostering a sphere of influence that extends well beyond its national borders. This strategic counterbalance to US interests in the region plays a critical role in Venezuela’s international relations.
President Trump recently stated that Cuba is likely to “collapse” soon and suggested that the same strategy used in Venezuela could be applied to Colombia. However, a more pressing concern for Washington is not just individual nations but the rise of alternative global structures. The BRICS alliance, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, was established in 1998 and now accounts for nearly 60 per cent of the world’s population and resources. Its significance lies in its challenge to the US dollar’s dominance by promoting trade in local currencies. Some member countries, such as India and Russia, have already started implementing this approach.
Ideological Disagreements
This shift poses a substantial threat beyond ideological disagreements. Historical context indicates that leaders such as Muammar Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein faced severe consequences for pursuing trade in currencies other than the dollar. In contrast, Gulf Arab states have pegged their currencies to the dollar through long-term agreements. Given that oil and other essential commodities are dollar-denominated, countries that oppose US policies often experience currency crises, underscoring the impact of this economic strategy.
Iraq, Syria, Iran, Lebanon, and significant portions of Africa exemplify the current geopolitical landscape. The gradual depreciation of India’s rupee further illustrates these economic shifts. American policymakers are increasingly apprehensive that a transition to a post-dollar global order may be imminent. If such a scenario occurs, the very foundations of American economic power could face significant challenges. The United States’ status as the preeminent global superpower would be subjected to scrutiny, and its unwavering support for Israel might become increasingly difficult to justify. Consequently, President Trump’s assertive stance has contributed to heightened global tensions.
Potential Targets
Despite Cuba and Colombia being highlighted as potential targets, analysts primarily view Iran as the primary objective. The recent military operations near Tehran’s nuclear sites seemed more like strategic rehearsals than direct assaults. However, engaging in a full-scale conflict with Iran poses the risk of destabilising oil supplies from the Persian Gulf, potentially igniting a worldwide energy crisis. The increasing accessibility of Venezuelan oil mitigates this risk to some extent.
Nevertheless, recent geopolitical events serve as cautionary indicators. Similar to the challenges faced by the US in its prolonged engagement with Hamas, Iran’s entrenched geopolitical stance suggests that any military confrontation could significantly disrupt the balance of power in Asia. A decisive American victory could undermine the positions of both Russia and China, thereby compelling Gulf nations that host US military bases to align with American interests. Moreover, India’s growing economic influence and sovereignty could become insidiously dependent on US approval.
The situation in Venezuela exemplifies the potential for significant global disruption in 2026. Political and economic shocks are already evident, particularly in Asia. The United Nations’ effectiveness in addressing these issues appears limited, similar to that of the League of Nations after World War I. As the year advances, substantial changes in the global political, economic, and ethical landscape seem to be on the cards.
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Dr Tasleem Ahmad Rehmani is president of Muslim Political Council of India and a prominent political analyst. The views expressed here are the author’s own and Clarion India does not necessarily subscribe to them.
